The Kingdom of Morocco has two great allies – the United States and Israel –, two great enemies – Algeria and the Polisario Front – and a tradition: testing Spain at very well-chosen moments in order to verify our limits and simultaneously display its power. To the tableau must be added the day chosen by Rabat for the show of force of sending, as if nothing, about 50,000 young people to a Spanish city of 83,000 inhabitants: the celebration of the ascension to the throne of Mohamed VI, whose public appearance on Thursday visualized his poor health, which fosters and anticipates underground struggles in the Majzén, the opaque elite that forms the court and takes its name from the royal residence in Rabat.
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Geography is geography and Morocco is Spain’s great neighbor. Since the legendary Green March of 1975 on Western Sahara, Rabat has asserted itself through stress tests from which it has always, fortunately, backed down. The occupation of the Perejil islet in July 2002 was a textbook example. And why is Morocco “punishing” the Spanish Government now? The Government that precisely recognized the Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in April 2022, the greatest “gift” that could be offered in the name of good neighborliness?
In these four years, things have happened in the world. If the pieces are added up, it is easier to put together the puzzle and try to understand a serious crisis, which is very much a warning to navigators. Donald Trump has returned to the White House after his first term (2016-2020) whose great achievement in foreign policy was the Abraham Accords, signed in August 2020, a pragmatic plan: to “normalize” the reality of the Middle East and make concessions to those who diplomatically recognized the State of Israel. The Kingdom of Morocco joined the deal in exchange for “appropriating” Western Sahara and in doing so solidified Trump’s initiative (since Jordan in 1994, no major Arab country had established relations with Israel). Side note: the Kingdom of Morocco has a privileged historical relationship with the United States. It was the first country in the world to recognize its independence and they already signed a friendship treaty in 1786. And in Washington DC operates one of the most robust and well-oiled pro-Morocco lobbies…
A trip to Algeria and a proposal to naturalize Sahrawis
This crisis is not about immigration, although immigration is the best method today to influence domestic politics in Spain and also in the whole European Union, whose weaknesses seem to please the Trump administration so much. President Pedro Sánchez visited Algeria on July 20 and restored cordial relations prior to the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. And second, and perhaps more importantly: the Congress began processing on July 23 a bill from Sumar to grant Spanish nationality to all Sahrawis born before 1975 – the date of the Spanish withdrawal –, a measure from which about 60,000 Sahrawis could benefit, who would gain strength and much leverage in maintaining their confrontation with Morocco. It is not the same to detain a Sahrawi activist as a Sahrawi activist with a Spanish/European Union passport… Granting this attribute to their enemies was badly received in Rabat.
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Morocco’s other great ally, Israel, seems delighted with the “mess” created for the Spanish Government. It took only hours for the Israeli ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, to lash out at the Government and rub in that they gave lessons, not caring about cheating because, as he well knows from his training and position, neither Ceuta nor Melilla are colonies, a status granted only by the United Nations. They are Spanish cities long before the creation of the Kingdom of Morocco, unlike Gibraltar, ceded in perpetuity to England by the Treaty of Utrecht of 1713. Obviously, their location in Africa makes them vulnerable and easy targets. The tensions arising with Washington and Tel Aviv over the Gaza and Iran wars are now taking a toll on the Government, as was to be feared. Somewhere in a drawer in Washington DC lies the option to press the red button: recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla. And the United States and Israel are bad enemies.
The probing exercised by Morocco confirms its good antennas about the situation in Spain. Far from uniting society and parties around the legitimate Government of Spain, the Ceuta crisis is more likely to polarize Spaniards so that they end up throwing plates at each other’s heads, instead of closing ranks in the face of a flagrant and unjustified provocation. Cui prodest? Who benefits? Domestically, the crisis benefits Vox. In Europe, the allies of Trumpism who see immigration as a demon. And it splits the European Union, whose lukewarm support for Spain in the Ceuta crisis is a way of scolding it for the recent regularization of 800,000 immigrants, poorly received in Brussels. By tradition, Morocco will lower its sails once it has achieved its goal of showing muscle. And please its two firm allies, against the backdrop of internal struggles caused by Mohamed VI’s physical weakness.
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