Mortgagors with loans indexed to the Euribor who have their review with the July data will notice an increase in their installments. The indicator will close with the highest monthly average since September 2024, as the provisional data, with one day left to conclude the month, stands at 2.85%, three-quarters of a percentage point higher than a year ago. The figure is also slightly higher than that of June.
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Although no sharp changes are observed, “the Euribor begins to anticipate an autumn in which the European Central Bank (ECB) could tighten the price of money,” comments iAhorro spokesperson, Laura Manrique. Although in its last meeting it decided to keep interest rates at 2.25%, it is not ruled out that in September it may decide to undertake a new hike, as geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary tensions continue.
“If energy pressure persists and September brings a new rate hike, 3% will cease to be a psychological ceiling to settle as the new technical floor,” adds Pablo Vega, financial expert at Roams. Despite this, the main forecasts point to the indicator continuing on a stable path, far from the sharp rises and falls recorded between mid-2022 and late 2024.
The context takes a toll on mortgages, both on the supply side and on consumers who have loans referenced to the most used index to update installments. In the case of a 200,000 euro mortgage over 30 years at the beginning of its life, with a Euribor + 0.60% differential and annual review, the installment would go from 808 euros to about 890 euros, which means an increase of more than 80 euros. More would also be paid if the review were semi-annual.
The increase has a greater impact the higher the mortgage capital. If, for example, the loan were 350,000 euros, the increase would be around 140 euros per month, which would mean about 1,690 euros per year. It should be noted, however, that rises and falls in the index affect loans that are at the beginning of their life to a greater extent, since at that time the outstanding capital to be amortized is greater.
No significant changes in sight in the mortgage offer
Regarding the mortgage offer, iAhorro points out that financial institutions have already adjusted much of their offers during the first half of the year. Summer is usually a period of lower commercial activity, so no significant changes in the mortgage offer are expected until September. However, Vega points out, in fixed and mixed mortgages, “the bank today guarantees a price for several years and usually covers part of that risk through swaps, which already incorporate expectations about the future evolution of rates.” Added to this is the mortgage war that several financial institutions have been waging for months, which has led them in many cases to offer interest rates below interbank market levels.
The consumer association Asufìn considers that the increase in the Euribor will end up impacting the mortgage market, where rates “more distant from those of last year” may be seen, which in some cases “cool” the housing purchase market in the medium term.
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