Faced with the strategic failure of the six-month military campaign and the stalled diplomacy with Iran, Donald Trump’s plan to defeat the enemy now involves the economic isolation of the Islamic regime. The president announced last night what he called an “Economic D-Day,” a new offensive with which he wants to punish any country that helps or does business with Tehran, a measure that could provoke a new indirect confrontation with China or Russia.
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“Today I announce the most devastating economic operation ever undertaken against any country,” the Republican wrote on his network, Truth Social. “Any country that allows its financial institutions, companies, airports, or government entities to provide any kind of lifeline to Iran will in turn face tremendous economic consequences.”
The president threatens “tremendous economic consequences” to those who provide “any kind of lifeline” to Iran
Despite the memorandum of understanding signed in June, in which both parties committed to a 60-day ceasefire, the war escalated again after a few days and, after two consecutive weeks of U.S. bombings on Iran and Tehran against U.S. bases in the region, Trump again suspended a series of attacks he had threatened.
This happened alongside reports revealing that the war had reduced U.S. missile reserves to a minimum and after Pentagon officials told Trump that the U.S. had nearly exhausted its list of military targets in Iran. However, the Iranian regime remains standing and strengthened by its control of the Strait of Hormuz, and its nuclear program, although degraded, has not been destroyed.
Since then, the White House has intensified economic pressure on Iran, reimposing sanctions lifted after the June agreement, as well as the naval blockade of Iranian ports. The Treasury Department has been developing for months the so-called Operation Economic Fury, the material pressure strategy accompanying Operation Epic Fury, the name given to the joint military campaign with Israel.
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Although the Iranian economy is weakened, especially after years of Western sanctions, Washington’s goal is for the country to move from crisis to suffocation. Tehran has so far managed to evade U.S. measures through clandestine activities, including a sophisticated network of tankers to export oil.
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In his post, Trump refers to the new strategy as “an economic war and isolation on an unprecedented scale” and calls on all countries to avoid any business or economic or logistical aid to the regime. Among the types of activities they will pursue, the president also mentions opaque and clandestine ones: “Oil smuggling, currency exchange lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries, shell companies… All this must stop now. You know who you are.”
The message can be interpreted as a call for help to his allies, but also as a threat if they do not follow the president’s wishes: “We need all our allies to stand with the U.S. to isolate and defeat the Iranian threat. These maniacs are against the ropes, and these historic measures will leave them paralyzed and limit their ability to project terror worldwide,” Trump concludes.
The announcement is a warning to China, the main buyer of Iranian oil, one month before Xi Jinping’s visit to the U.S.
China is, by far, the main buyer of Iranian oil in the world and accounts for more than 80% of the oil exported by sea. If Trump finally implements the “tremendous economic consequences” announced against any Iranian trading partner, that could lead to a direct clash with Beijing. This would frustrate the rapprochements made between the two leading world powers in the commercial field, after Trump and his government visited China before summer and awaiting a visit by Chinese leader Xi Jinping to the U.S. next month.
A U.S. ally in the Persian Gulf anticipated Trump’s announcement. The United Arab Emirates, which before the war was one of Iran’s main trading partners, announced on Tuesday that it would suspend all commercial activities, trade exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran. The announcement came after its Ministry of Defense announced it had detected two missiles launched from Iran.
Other countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, or Bahrain, have announced increased security measures and scrutiny over transfers and trade with Iran, but have not yet announced any comparable trade embargo. But Trump’s warning may also be directed at Oman, which has been negotiating with Iran for days to establish a new route through the Strait of Hormuz, a reason why the president threatened this week to “bomb” the country if it “interferes” in talks with Tehran.
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