North Korea launched ten ballistic missiles over the Sea of Japan on Thursday morning, just hours after Donald Trump had downplayed his support for the southern neighbor and expressed his respect for Kim Jong Un, whom he promised to meet before the end of the year.
Donald Trump stated this week that North Korea has 57 nuclear warheads, but the real number could be more than double, according to South Korea. Its Defense Minister, Ahn Gyu Bak, corrected the U.S. president on Thursday in Seoul during a parliamentary session: “According to our numbers, they would have between 80 and 120 nuclear weapons.”
He then clarified that this is the publicly known figure proposed by a South Korean institute specialized in the matter. However, he was very careful not to disclose the estimate of the South Korean armed forces themselves. “I am not authorized to reveal that here.”
While the world remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, Trump diverted attention to South Korea on Sunday night by announcing the reduction of the annual joint maneuvers which, due to the time difference—in Seoul it was already past six in the morning on Monday—were already starting. More recently, he pointed out that dictator Kim Jong Un has “57 very powerful nuclear weapons,” something that, according to him, “would never have happened” if he had been president during the previous term.
Pyongyang denies it
Donald Trump reiterates his desire to meet Kim Jong Un before the end of the year
“I know Kim Jong Un very well,” repeated Donald Trump, who refers to the North Korean dictator with more respect than to the president of allied South Korea, Lee Jae Myung. Trump justified the cut in the planned maneuvers, involving more than 18,000 soldiers, by the desire not to provoke someone with whom he maintains “a fantastic relationship,” as he repeats.
The powerful sister of the North Korean leader, in fact, would have disdainfully referred to the reduction of the maneuvers. “What does it matter?” In reality, Pyongyang expressed its displeasure last week with the launch of a projectile over the Sea of Japan, followed by a second test this Thursday, with about ten short-range ballistic missiles. Despite the reduction in the number of battalions, North Korean official media showed their indignation over the “qualitative and offensive leap” of the exercises. Indeed, a simulation of the siege and capture of Pyongyang was planned, which would have been canceled, according to South Korean media, due to the program cut.
Trump also disdainfully referred to the fact that the cost of the maneuvers fell massively, “as usual,” on the U.S.. Something that is only true if U.S. travel expenses are counted, which the South Korean army does not incur. And something that also does not take into account that the South Korean treasury funded 90% of the $10.8 billion cost of Camp Humphreys, the largest U.S. military base abroad.
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Likewise, 86% of South Korea’s arms imports come from the U.S.. But this is where the relationship is taking a turn, from dependence to integration. Indeed, the South Korean defense industry is making a great export leap, boosted by the excellence of its technological environment. On the other hand, the U.S. is considering building its warships abroad for the first time, and the conditions seem tailor-made for South Korean shipyards. When Trump presses, it is always in exchange for something.
The South Korean president, Lee Jae Myung, far from being offended by Trump’s bluffs, has appreciated that he actively pursues “moving from hostility and confrontation to building peace on the Korean peninsula.”
Lee said in January that North Korea was producing nuclear material at a rate sufficient to add twenty warheads annually. The previous president of his party, Mun Jae In, who experienced the opening under Trump’s previous term, wrote in his memoirs, published a couple of years ago, that Kim Jong Un had confessed that his atomic weapons only had defensive purposes, that he had no intention of using them, and that he did not want his daughter’s generation to inherit that burden.
The Swedish organization Sipri reduces the number of North Korean warheads to 60. But if the South Korean defense minister’s estimate is true, the North Korean arsenal could have surpassed Israel’s 90 warheads—another undeclared nuclear power—and, at the current rate, could overtake Pakistan and India in the next decade. That said, there is consensus that their nuclear-capable projectiles are relatively rudimentary, although improvements are observed and they would already be capable of reaching U.S. territory.
It is worth noting, finally, that Trump’s statements—who yesterday reaffirmed his willingness to meet Kim Jong Un this year—do not occur in a vacuum. This week, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi traveled to Seoul with the express request that South Korea not take sides between Beijing and Washington. No less troubling in the U.S. capital is the news that this Saturday a South Korean cargo ship will depart from Busan on a mission—officially sponsored—to reach Western European ports by crossing the Russian Arctic.
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