Sunday’s general elections in Sweden, whose counting has not yet finished, preliminarily grant an absolute majority to the center-left bloc of parties led by former Social Democratic Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, against the alliance of right-wing parties supporting the current conservative ruler, Ulf Kristersson.
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However, with 94% of the vote counted, the center-left opposition on Monday had only 28,600 more votes than the right-wing bloc. In the Riksdag (Parliament), which has 349 seats, this provisionally translates into 176 seats for Andersson and her potential partners, versus 173 seats for Kristersson and his allies.
There is, therefore, caution. Kristersson has not admitted defeat, and Andersson merely told her supporters on Sunday night that, “if this result is confirmed, Sweden will have a new government.” The counting continues. Additionally, it is customary that on the Wednesday after the election Sunday – that is, tomorrow – the ballots of Swedes abroad and early votes sent on time but not received on election day are counted. Traditionally, votes cast abroad tend to be conservative. Official conclusive results might not be known until Wednesday or even Thursday.
According to Swedish analysts
Fear that the far-right SD party would enter government and the end of its monopoly on opposing immigration, among possible reasons for its electoral setback
In this scenario emerges one of the surprises of these elections, which draws attention especially in the current international context: the setback of the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) party. According to provisional results, it received 17.5% of the votes, three points less than in the previous 2022 elections, where it garnered 20.5%.
Moreover, four years ago it was the second most voted party and the first in the right-wing bloc. Now it has fallen to third place, and within its bloc it is surpassed by the Moderate Party (the name of the conservative formation) of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.
“We do not yet have the final result, but it is clear that we have lost some percentage points compared to four years ago,” admitted the far-right leader, Jimmie Åkesson, on Sunday in Stockholm before disappointed supporters. The images from the SD election night did not show festive jubilation, but a clear awareness of having lost ground.
“There is a group of voters who may like many of our policies, but who emotionally find it hard to accept us,” far-right MP Richard Jomshof told Reuters. The party claims to have expelled extremists from its ranks and has apologized for its past.
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Founded in 1988 by neo-Nazi supremacists, Sweden Democrats (SD) began to moderate its positions somewhat from 2005, the year Åkesson was elected leader. In 2010, it managed to enter the Riksdag and in the 2018 elections it garnered 17.5% of the votes, without being accepted in government coalitions.
It came out strengthened from the 2022 polls and agreed to give external support to the current tripartite government of conservative Kristersson with Christian Democrats and Liberals, who thus accepted bypassing the cordon sanitaire against the far right. Before Sunday’s elections, Kristersson had promised them that this time they would indeed be in his future government. Be that as it may, hostility towards immigration and ultranationalism continue to be the hallmarks of the SD.
Among the possible reasons for its setback cited by political scientists and commentators in Swedish media, one is precisely that the SD has lost exclusivity over rejecting immigration, because other parties also support a stricter migration policy. Kristersson’s government has toughened it, with the removal of permanent residence for refugees, cuts in social benefits, and increased deportations. Andersson’s Social Democrats have supported much of these reforms explicitly or tacitly in recent years and assured during the campaign that, if they returned to power, they would maintain them.
Sweden Democrats leaders attribute the electoral setback partly to the persistent aversion to the party’s neo-Nazi origins, and partly to its role as external support to the government. Swedish analysts consider, however, that the prospect of SD formally joining a future government and having ministers was going too far for many voters, who opted to try to prevent it.
Given the rise of the far right in Europe, boosted by disillusionment with traditional parties, the cost of living, and the murky geopolitical situation, commentators in Stockholm believe that the setback of Sweden Democrats is rather due to tactical voting and is not a sign that the far right has peaked.
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