Against expectations, the 24-year prison sentence for José Luis Ábalos for corruption crimes when he was Minister of Transport not only harms the PSOE, but seems to boost it, according to the July barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), published this Wednesday, in which the socialists gain almost two points in estimated vote (33%) compared to June and recover an eight-point lead over the PP (25.1%), which loses two points in a month. Vox continues to lose momentum and would now obtain 15.3%, half a point less than in the last survey, and Sumar (6.1%) also loses three tenths.
Among the nationwide parties, Podemos (2.5%) has not managed to recover from the drop recorded since February, when it was almost at 4% of the estimated vote. It now loses three tenths compared to June. In contrast, SALF, from the ultra Alvise Pérez, stands at 2.6%, half a point more than in the previous barometer.
ERC (2.7%) maintains its lead over Junts (0.7%) and the PNV (1%) surpasses Bildu (0.8%) for the first time in 14 months
Among the regional parties, ERC maintains its hegemony in the CIS, with 2.7%, which is eight tenths more than in June, and the PNV (1%) also improves, which since May last year had not been ahead of EH Bildu (0.8%). Junts remains at 0.7% and the BNG at 0.9%.
The fieldwork for the barometer consists of 4,020 interviews conducted from July 1 to 6, the week after the sentence against Ábalos for the Mask case was known on June 22, and the indictment of the director of the Civil Guard, Mercedes González, in the framework of the Leire Díez case.
The survey also includes an evaluation of the government ministers, in which the Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, remains the highest rated, with 5.62 out of 10, only three tenths below the previous score in April. He is followed by the Minister of Social Rights, Pablo Bustinduy, with 5.36, and in third place is the Minister of Culture, Ernest Urtasun, with 5.02. They are the only members of the Council of Ministers who pass. The next best rated is the Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares (4.74).
Read more PSOE president Cristina Narbona acknowledges the “worrying signs” in the Leire case
Three out of four support the Pope, in favor of welcoming migrants
In a block of questions related to the recent visit of the Pope to Spain, from June 6 to 12, 96.8% say they have heard or had information about it. Of these, 76.8% consider this visit positive and 70.4% believe it has improved Spain’s image. In addition, 71.8% say they have heard or had information about Pope Leo XIV’s opinion on immigration.
The barometer does not specify it, but the Pope’s opinion, even before the visit to Spain, was favorable to welcoming migrants. Asked about their level of agreement with the Pope’s statements on immigration, three out of four respondents (76.2%) agree. However, only 54.6% say they have information about Leo XIV’s opinion – of absolute condemnation – on political polarization, and of these, the majority (85.2%) agree with the Pope.
Housing remains the top problem, followed by immigration, amid debate on national priority
Housing continues to be Spain’s main problem – since it took this position in the December 2024 barometer – now with 43% mentions. It is followed by immigration (23.4%), in a context of broad debate about the principle of national priority that Vox is imposing on the PP in all regional governments where they are negotiating. And, in third place, are political problems in general (18.7%) and corruption and fraud (17.8%).
