The capital of Saxony-Anhalt, an eastern German state holding regional elections this Sunday that literally have the whole country on edge, has until now been mostly known for a famous scientific experiment: the Magdeburg hemispheres. In 1656, its mayor, physicist Otto von Guericke, demonstrated the tremendous force of atmospheric pressure by joining two metal hemispheres and extracting the air from inside them using a vacuum pump he invented himself. He then hitched two teams of sixteen horses, eight on each side, to try to separate them, but they could not. After opening a valve and allowing air to enter, both hemispheres separated without much effort.
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Now, Magdeburg risks becoming known for a far less proud historical milestone: becoming the first federal state in Germany to be governed by the far right since 1945. According to the latest polls, the ultra party Alternative for Germany (AfD) will sweep the polls with between 41% and 43% of the votes.
The ultras would thus be on the verge of an absolute majority, the only way to bypass the firewall ( Brandmauer ) with which other parties have always excluded them from all kinds of governing coalitions. But this time there is a chance that, if few parties gain representation, the AfD could receive more seats with that same percentage and thus come to power.
Movement ‘Saxony-Anhalt. Open to the world’
About 6,000 people marched on Saturday in Magdeburg against the AfD with slogans like “Better without Nazis,” and throughout the weekend there are up to 26 similar demonstrations in various towns of the state
Against this backdrop, the Christian Democratic CDU – which has governed since 2002, in this legislature in coalition with Social Democrats and Liberals – would have around 22-23%, while the leftist Die Linke stands at 12%; the Social Democratic SPD falls to between 6% and 8%; the Greens hover around 5%-6%; and the Liberals are on track not to renew their parliamentary representation.
The CDU has tried throughout the campaign to present itself as a democratic safeguard. “Anyone who wants Germany to remain an open and liberal country, and who wants Saxony-Anhalt to remain an interesting place, also at the European level, that person should not vote for the AfD on Sunday, but should vote for the CDU,” said this week the Christian Democratic chancellor, Friedrich Merz, on one of his only two campaign trips. His unpopularity is such that the candidate and current president of Saxony-Anhalt, Sven Schulze, preferred to keep him at a distance.
Still, Merz went on Thursday with Schulze to visit Leuna, a city that houses a huge biofuel factory, a joy in this state of 2.1 million inhabitants – 1.7 million are called to the polls – without significant industrial fabric and with a tendency to depopulation.
It is important not to confuse the impoverished Saxony-Anhalt with two neighboring states: Saxony, also in the east and where the far right is also very strong, with its capital in Dresden and an increasingly attractive magnet for investments and new companies; and Lower Saxony, in the west, which houses Volkswagen’s headquarters and whose capital, Hanover, hosts Germany’s largest industrial fair.
In the state going to the polls today, the population is aging, and the percentage of citizens of foreign origin is 12%, less than half the German average. Why does the AfD flourish here and in other states of the former communist GDR, such as the aforementioned Saxony, Thuringia, Brandenburg, or Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, which in turn holds elections on September 20?
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There is a sense of identity among East Germans, which many young people and adults positively claim, and which has no relation to communist nostalgia. And there is a sense of identity articulated around the frustrations accumulated since the 1990 reunification due to economic disparities, which the far right exploits successfully.
“In the east, a ‘culture of discontent’ prevails, a widespread attitude of complaint and reactive dissatisfaction, which explains why the AfD has managed to consolidate so firmly and why its support will not decrease,” says Steffen Mau, sociologist at Humboldt University of Berlin, in a meeting with correspondents.
Mau, himself born and raised in the east, points out that “there is a negative political climate; the AfD has consolidated a loyal electorate and is usually chosen out of deep conviction, apart from the fact that increasingly the party is perceived as part of the traditional political system.” Rejection of immigration, even in places like Saxony-Anhalt, which have little immigration, continues to be the party’s great rallying banner.
On Saturday in Magdeburg, at a respectable distance from the bronze statue of physicist Otto von Guericke, the AfD closed its successful electoral campaign before more than 1,600 supporters in a cultural center with the candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, and the federal co-leaders, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla.
Meanwhile, another 6,000 people marched in a demonstration against them called by various groups under the slogan Saxony-Anhalt. Open to the world. The banners at both events said it all. “Our country first!” or “Save Germany!” at the AfD event. “Those who fall asleep in democracy wake up in dictatorship” or “Better without Nazis,” at the counter-march.
Weidel and Chrupalla called on their supporters (nationwide the AfD is the leading party in preferences, with up to 28%, according to polls) to look to Saxony-Anhalt because, according to them, “the future of Germany is at stake here.” That is also the view of those who fear that the victorious far right might also manage to govern. For the federal government of conservatives and Social Democrats under Chancellor Merz, it is a nightmare scenario.
Campaign in Saxony-Anhalt
Tactical voting to prevent gift seats to the far-right AfD
Using the characteristics of the German electoral system, a campaign called Tactical Vote tries to prevent the AfD from obtaining an absolute majority of seats in the Saxony-Anhalt Parliament and, therefore, from governing alone. According to polls, the far right will obtain around 42-43% of the votes, that is, it would fall just short of an absolute majority in percentage terms. However, with that same result, it could receive more seats if few parties enter the chamber due to the minimum 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. The solution: ensure that the Social Democratic SPD and the Greens, formations at relative risk of not reaching 5%, do so. About fifteen volunteers with the support of the communication agency Goodforces promote it on social networks and campaign door to door handing out leaflets. For the voter determined to stop the AfD at all costs, this option does not imply completely giving up voting for their preferred party. The German electoral system includes two votes per ballot: with the first, a specific candidate in the constituency is chosen; with the second, a party list. The promoters of Tactical Vote suggest choosing the desired party with the first vote, and giving the second to SPD or Greens to ward off the ultra danger.
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