Is Vladimir Putin finished? Has the dictatorial regime of the Russian president entered an inexorable phase of decline? Can an end be glimpsed for the more than 26 years of rule of the modern czar of Russia? Cornered by his military failures in Ukraine, where it is impossible for him to advance after four and a half years of war – although he bombards civilians in Kyiv and other cities with drones – suffocated by international economic sanctions – saved only by China, on which he has become dependent – and with the original national consensus around his figure broken – even though the rigged legislative elections on September 20 may not reflect it – more and more observers believe that Putin’s time at the head of the Kremlin is running out. Although that does not make him any less dangerous.
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The war in Ukraine, Putin’s greatest and most serious strategic mistake, is what will ultimately lead him to ruin. The so-called “special military operation” was only such in the deficient documents of the Russian high command, and the truth is that after four and a half years of fighting the front line is completely stalled. “Russian advances on the battlefield approach zero, while Ukrainian forces are creating the conditions to overcome positional warfare,” notes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil begin to undermine citizen morale and confidence in the leader
The massive and indiscriminate bombings of the Ukrainian civilian population – with new versions of drones, powered by jet engines and much faster – have put Kyiv in serious difficulties, which lacks enough interceptor missiles, basically Patriots. But it remains a confession of impotence on Moscow’s part, unable to advance on the ground and conquer all of Donbass, a fact that – forcing reality – would allow Putin to claim victory.
To further darken the Kremlin’s outlook, the Ukrainian army has not only managed to stop the Russian advance – with swarms of drones turning the front into a death field – but has taken the war inside Russia, up to Moscow itself. Ukrainian selective bombings – against ports and refineries, which have caused fuel shortages; against Rassvet satellite launchers, with which Russia wants to compensate for the lack of access to the Starlink network; against cargo ships in the Black Sea and against major distribution centers of e-commerce platforms, such as Wildberries – not only cause economic and logistical distortions but are beginning to undermine citizen morale. And confidence in the leader.
The state of the economy does not help improve the outlook. The initial boost from the war industry, which fueled growth, has slowed, and the government has been forced to approve the first cuts in the public budget (up to 35%, excluding defense). Social spending is the most affected.
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“Putin’s charm is fading. The Russian president still holds absolute power, but the magic has disappeared. His true face is beginning to show: that of a bent, agitated, almost fragile old man,” wrote Russian political scientist Alexander Baunov in the independent media Meduza, for whom the definitive turning point was the takeover of the internet last spring, with the blocking of the most popular messaging apps – WhatsApp, Telegram – and the imposition of the official Max so that nothing escapes the Kremlin. For citizens, according to Baunov, this meant a kind of break in the tacit “contract” by which, in exchange for political passivity, private life was kept free.
At almost 74 years old, the Russian president seems to have lost his aura of invincibility. His popularity – high, as it could not be otherwise in a heavily controlled country – has nevertheless experienced a clear erosion in recent months: if a year ago it was 87%, today it is 76%, according to the Levada Center. The Russian president may not see it so clearly when he decided last August to ban Yabloko, the only legal political party in Russia opposing the war, from running in the September 20 elections. Polls give victory to his party, United Russia, but that, with the opposition persecuted and imprisoned, has little value.
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Some analysts have already begun to address post-Putin scenarios. Among them, Julian G. Waller, a researcher in the Russia Studies program at the Center for Naval Analyses and professor at George Washington University, who in an article in Foreign Affairs titled After Putin emphasizes the uncertainty of the succession process, which the Russian dictator himself has fostered by refusing to designate a possible heir, which could lead to a “chaotic power struggle” among the regime’s elites, without ruling out a shaky continuity of the current gerontocracy.
In this toxic atmosphere, what worries Western governments most is that the Russian president opts for a fierce leap forward to save his regime – and even himself – promoting a military escalation in Ukraine and perhaps in Europe, where an increase in hybrid warfare actions has already been perceived (such as the foiled attack on a Ukrainian plane at Leipzig airport). The weekly The Economist reported, citing Russian sources, that Putin is preparing an extraordinary mobilization of between 300,000 and 400,000 additional soldiers. Other sources, provided by The Defense Post, warn of the risk that the Russian leader may resort to tactical nuclear weapons as a last resort to subdue Ukraine. A dark end to his reign is taking shape.
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