“In August, with the cool weather, we will reflect on the calendar,” they ironically claim at Moncloa about the key dates Pedro Sánchez is considering for the final stretch of the legislature, in which the only thing he cannot foresee in advance are the judicial mines that may still explode amid the avalanche of cases of alleged corruption affecting the Government and the PSOE.
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The great decision of the Prime Minister will be when to call the next general elections: whether in February or March next year, before the municipal and regional elections in May, as some socialist sectors demand, or already in July 2027, to exhaust the mandate to its last breath, as was his initial intention. The unknown is yet to be resolved: “Reality is very dynamic,” Sánchez warned to avoid committing to a date yet, beyond ruling out a super Sunday electoral next May in which local, regional, and general ballots coincide.
The president has yet to resolve the unknown of the general elections: between February and March… or already in July 2027
The Government is eager for the arrival of the summer break, trusting that the “unbreathable atmosphere” of political confrontation triggered by the corruption cases involving the political and family environment of the president will ease then. But Sánchez does not ease off the accelerator, and the three remaining weeks of July are packed with major “milestones” for the Government, which will largely determine the reflection the president will undertake in August.
So nothing about crossing arms, waiting for the holidays to reduce the decibels of the political scene. The State budgets, regional financing, housing policy, and the completion of the Amnesty law are issues Sánchez wants to have ready for judgment – and which in turn will condition the calendar for the end of the legislature – before August.
The stability path begins its processing in Congress next week, with plenaries on July 14 and 23
First, the budget project for 2027. The Council of Ministers approved last Tuesday a record spending ceiling – 226.032 billion euros – for the new public accounts and a stability path that would provide the autonomous communities with a fiscal margin of 5.849 billion.
Next Tuesday, July 14, an extraordinary plenary of Congress will debate and vote on these stability objectives – the spending ceiling is only reported, not voted on – which will not pass due to lack of parliamentary majority. But this path will be voted on again in Congress in a second plenary, scheduled for July 23, where it will again face the already announced rejection of Junts, who together with the PP and Vox will block it. So the Government will have to frame its budget project within the last stability path sent to Brussels, even though it provides less fiscal margin to the autonomous communities.
The Government opts to present the budget project after the holidays, on a date yet to be determined
Once this parliamentary procedure is completed in July, the Government plans to finally present the budget project after the August holidays. On a date, however, still to be determined. The general debate on the accounts could take place already in October or November, according to Moncloa’s calculations. And if the project does not get the green light, it will be time to “make decisions,” as Sánchez himself acknowledged, about the election calendar.
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Next Thursday, July 16, is another date marked in red, as the Court of Justice of the EU is expected to rule on the Amnesty law. A decisive step for it to finally reach Carles Puigdemont. And the Government has long trusted that the return of the former president to Catalonia will open a “window of opportunity” for them, at least to rebuild the broken bridges with Junts.
This July 16 is marked in red at Moncloa: European justice will decide on the Amnesty law
Another milestone this July is the new model of regional financing, which would provide an additional 20.975 billion to the communities of the common regime and which the Minister of Finance, Arcadi España, will present at the Council of Fiscal and Financial Policy on July 29. It will have the endorsement of the Government and the Generalitat, but will be rejected by the rest of the PP and PSOE communities. And it also does not seem likely to prosper when voted on in Congress as an organic law.
It is also a major bet of Sánchez to push forward the new housing decree law that the Council of Ministers will approve again, with the extension of rental contracts and a wide range of initiatives. The president highlighted it last Wednesday: “We will propose a package of housing measures that I hope this time can count on majority support,” he trusted.
The last meeting of the Council of Ministers for the term is scheduled for July 28. And although the initial intention was not to convene it again until September 1, a first meeting of the new season is now already considered for August 25. “Keep working,” Sánchez promised.
Goal: demobilize the moderate PP electorate
While waiting for Pedro Sánchez to decide when to call the general elections, PSOE strategists turn a deaf ear to the latest published polls, which predict an overwhelming absolute majority for the PP and Vox of about 200 deputies. At Ferraz, however, they assure that the parliamentary blocs are much more tied than those polls forecast. Despite the succession of judicial blows they are taking due to corruption cases, the PSOE leadership claims they still remain around 30% of the vote. In fact, they point out that just by reducing the vote percentage attributed to the PP and Vox by two or three points, Alberto Núñez Feijóo could not govern, as already happened in 2023. And one of the strategies they consider is to seek the demobilization of the more temperate and moderate PP electorate. They believe they can count on two assets for this: the “reactionary agenda” they claim Vox imposes on the PP, and the US midterm elections next November, before which Donald Trump could stir political polarization with effects worldwide. And also in Spain.
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