The Ministry of Economy estimates that the impact of the war in Iran will reduce the growth of the Spanish economy by between one and four tenths this year and could push inflation to 3.1%. In global terms, four tenths of GDP would represent up to 7,000 million in negative impact. The Government currently maintains the estimate that the economy will grow by 2.2% this year, but the First Vice-President, Carlos Cuerpo, has announced that this forecast will be revised in the coming weeks.

The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a severe blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the war with Iran has caused a historic energy shock and destabilized the global economy.

The predictable rejection in the Congress of Deputies of the decree containing the extraordinary extension of rental contracts (Junts plans to vote against and the PNV has confirmed it will abstain), which the Government approved a month ago, opens a scenario of legal insecurity that pits tenants and landlords against each other. All experts consulted agree that a wave of complaints could begin (the UGT union speaks of an “avalanche”) from tenants who see their landlord unwilling to extend the terms of their current contract. The scenario, from a legal point of view, is unprecedented.

Less profitable airports and routes are becoming the first victims of the tensions airlines are facing these days. Although they have collectively increased scheduled seats by 6% for this summer, the companies themselves plan to cut capacity on connections where they obtain low margins, in search of efficiency amidst the kerosene crisis, according to industry sources.

The first quarter of the year does not usually bring good news in terms of employment. It comes after the Christmas campaign and before the start of the summer season has been activated. Therefore, these are three months that usually see a loss of employed people and a gain in unemployed people, as has also happened on this occasion. From January to March, 170,300 jobs were lost, according to data from the Labour Force Survey (EPA) published this morning, and the unemployment rate rose to 10.83%. This represents an increase of 231,500 unemployed people.