The current president of the Junta of Andalusia and candidate for re-election for the Popular Party, Juanma Moreno, would have managed to secure an absolute majority in the regional elections held this Sunday, according to polls conducted by Sigma Dos for Canal Sur and NC Report for La Razón, which give the socialist candidate, María Jesús Montero, the worst results for the PSOE in the community in its entire history. The polls thus depict a scenario of free hands for the Andalusian president, without the constraints of Vox, which shows clear signs of stagnation.
Read more Turnout soars above 52% at 6:00 PM and confirms the mobilization of Andalusian voters
The data from the regional channel’s poll places the PP in a range between 56 and 59 deputies, above the 55 that marks the threshold for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia. If these projections are confirmed, Moreno Bonilla would be in a position to match or even improve the historic 58 seats of 2022, which will allow him to govern again alone and clear up the uncertainty of whether he will need Vox for the next legislature, setting the pace in the PP. For its part, the NC Report poll would confirm Moreno’s absolute majority with an even higher range of 57-60 seats.
If the face of the day would be Moreno, if what the polls anticipate is confirmed, the cross of the day would be for the Socialist Party. The candidacy led by the former vice president of the Government and former Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, a personal bet of the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, would move in a range between 26 and 29 seats and would sign the worst result in the history of the PSOE in the community, even worsening the 30 seats of 2022 of Juan Espadas and suffering a harsh political setback. The NC Report poll confirms the same trend.
As the third force, Vox resists, with Manuel Gavira at the helm, with between 13 and 15 deputies (it got 14 in 2022) showing clear stagnation, especially considering the evolution of Santiago Abascal’s party in the other three autonomous communities where elections have recently been held (Extremadura, Aragón, and Castilla y León). A result that is also sterile for conditioning the Executive in the face of the comfortable solo victory of the Popular ranks.
On the left flank, Por Andalucía (Antonio Maíllo) would resist with about 5 or 6 seats (it obtained 5 in 2022), while Adelante Andalucía, with José Ignacio García at the helm, would experience a notable rise from its current 2 deputies to also stand between 4 and 5 representatives but would not achieve the overtaking.
Read more The election night is expected to be long in Andalusia, with the counting pending the last vote
In these elections, turnout has risen significantly. At 6:00 PM it reached 52.14%, more than seven points higher than in 2022 at the same time. In fact, then the final turnout barely reached 56.2%, a bar that today will be greatly exceeded driven by a massive mobilization that has ended up underpinning Juanma Moreno’s majority.
Unlike other electoral appointments, the first counting data will not be able to be published at 8:00 PM as usual. The Electoral Board of Andalusia has ruled that official data cannot be published until 8:43 PM. The reason is the delay of almost three quarters of an hour in the constitution of an electoral table in a school in Seville city.
Andalusia is preparing, therefore, to certify from 8:43 PM a count that points to ratifying Juanma Moreno’s hegemony and the opening of a new legislature of solo governability in San Telmo.
