‘El Niño’ strongest in a century will favor an autumn with more storms

The El Niño phenomenon, which is already developing in the Pacific Ocean, could be the most intense in a century, according to a warning issued this Friday by the British Meteorological Office (Met). Strong storms and rains will hit northwest Europe, including the United Kingdom, this autumn and winter, while in the tropics, southern Africa, and northeastern Australia there will be a higher risk of drought. 2027 is already anticipated to be the warmest year ever recorded, explains the Met. Meanwhile, despite the weak connection between El Niño and the climate in Spain, a very strong episode could favor rainier than normal autumns or early winters, according to Aemet.

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This phenomenon is one of the main factors driving natural global climate variability and occurs when the surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (especially off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador) warm more than usual for several months, which means that human-caused global warming increases by a few tenths.

However, the strength it has now acquired has made it “an unprecedented phenomenon, as such an intense El Niño signal has never been seen in our forecasts,” said Adam Scaife, head of meteorology at the Met.

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has already declared that the sea waters in the central tropical Pacific showed a continuous thermal anomaly of more than 0.5 ºC, which triggered the alert for the presence of this phenomenon and its impact on precipitation and temperatures worldwide.

The Met warns today that this warming of sea waters could exceed 3°C in the coming months, which would make this year’s phenomenon “the largest since the 19th century.” According to the Climate Brink data panel, which is based on NOAA records, a peak of 3.9 °C could be reached in November, a figure much higher than the 3 °C anomaly already recorded in 2015, the year that held the record.

El Niño episodes cause a rise in global temperature that is generally observed the year after the episode. Therefore, 2027 is expected to be the warmest year ever recorded, according to the British Met warning.

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This year, however, is not far behind; the exceptional succession of heat waves and lack of precipitation in recent months have resulted in the driest July in 190 years and have led Europe to an unprecedented water crisis, with rivers at historic lows, in addition to the drought situation affecting almost three-quarters of England and all of Wales.

A situation that has caused strong pressure on the water supply system, wildlife, farmers, emergency services, and infrastructure across the continent. In the case of the English, reservoirs have dropped to 62.6%, 16.3% below the usual level for this time of year, according to official data.

The climate becomes warmer and drier in some places, and cooler and wetter in others as a result of this phenomenon, which will offer a preview of the temperatures the world will regularly experience toward the end of the 2030s, according to experts.

This summer has been one of the hottest in Spain, although these temperatures cannot be directly attributed to El Niño, clarifies Aemet. However, they note that despite the connection between this phenomenon and the weather in Europe being “weak,” very strong episodes can favor rainier than normal autumns or early winters in Spain.

The climate in the country is very variable, and the factors that cause it to be hotter or rainier are not closely related to El Niño, explains José Luis Camacho, spokesperson for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet). In autumns that are already rainy, he explains that if it rained more than expected in this season, after investigation, some connection could be established, but “weak.”

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