The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump’s Damocles sword, has become the main objective of the United States in its war in Iran, which has already lasted five and a half months. When he ordered the start of the joint offensive with Israel on February 28, the president set optimistic and unrealistic goals: he promised the people that he would achieve a regime change in two weeks, during which he would end Tehran’s nuclear program and eliminate the threat of its allied militias in the region. However, even before the launch of the first missile, U.S. intelligence had already determined that those objectives were unattainable solely through military action.
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The offensive gave way to diplomacy and both countries signed a memorandum of understanding in June committing to a 60-day ceasefire and the lifting of their respective naval blockades. But the agreement fell apart with successive attacks by Tehran on ships in Hormuz and on U.S. bases in the region, as well as by Washington against energy and civilian infrastructure in Iran. Gradually, Trump has been abandoning his maximalist goals and now seeks a dignified way out of the war, preferably before the midterm legislative elections on November 3.
Trump privately proposed to his advisors the possibility of signing an indefinite ceasefire under the threat of new attacks if Iran enriches uranium
According to a report this weekend by The Wall Street Journal, the president has privately proposed to his top advisors the possibility of declaring victory and ending the conflict even if a comprehensive nuclear agreement, which completely prohibits uranium enrichment by Tehran, has not been reached. According to sources from the Trump Administration revealed to the newspaper, the president believes that Iran “probably cannot resume its nuclear activity” after Operation Midnight Hammer, the bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, caused severe damage to its infrastructure.
Furthermore, Trump understands that U.S. intelligence would detect any attempt to rebuild those facilities or clandestinely produce a nuclear bomb, and that any threat of new attacks “would serve as a lasting deterrent,” reported The Wall Street Journal. Thus, the president would be open to the idea of an “indefinite” ceasefire under the permanent threat of restarting the offensive if Tehran takes steps toward the atomic weapon.
This weekend, Iran sent the U.S. a series of demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial bottleneck for international trade, through which before the war passed one-fifth of the world’s crude oil. The list includes lifting the U.S. naval blockade, as well as sanctions against Tehran, the withdrawal of U.S. forces around the country, payment of war reparations, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and an end to attacks against Iran’s allies in the region.
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Most of these demands were already included in the memorandum of understanding signed in June. However, that agreement established that Washington would only fully lift its sanctions if a definitive pact on Iran’s nuclear program was reached.
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Tehran’s new position reaffirms its strategy of continuing to wear down Trump, who increasingly feels a greater urgency to end the conflict: popular support for the war is declining, around 30% according to recent polls, and the enormous missile expenditure is leading to its depletion, according to U.S. media reports last week, although Trump denied it through his social networks.
For his part, the president also trusts that his war of attrition strategy will bear fruit. In an interview with the Axios portal, he stated this weekend that the economic difficulties and high inflation in Iran will eventually force the Islamist regime to accept a new agreement. “We are lowering the tone,” he added, ruling out new military actions in the immediate future.
The proximity of the midterm elections, in three months, has put Trump in a vulnerable position, already compared to the 1979 hostage crisis, which thwarted Jimmy Carter’s reelection. As then, the Islamic Republic is exerting great political pressure, which this time goes hand in hand with economic pressure, as rising energy prices are further worsening voters’ perception of the economy.
The advisor to the president of the Iranian parliament, Majid Shakeri, has made this strategy clear in a post on his social networks. “Trump will not reach an agreement with us. We will accompany him until his term ends,” he said, referring to January 20, 2029. “The path to victory is neither fighting nor an agreement — it is managing the process of neither war nor peace, to the point of victory. Publicly confirming negotiations with the U.S. is complete madness. The winning approach is denial, ambiguity, and strategic patience,” Shakeri concluded.
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