The Spain-France universe is currently marked by the PP’s halt in the Senate to the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation (of Barcelona), with a consultation on its constitutionality, as well as by the historic sporting event in tomorrow’s World Cup semifinals. But this universe, so rich, will be even more prominent in the coming months due to our 2027 elections. The second round of the French presidential elections will take place precisely on Sunday, May 2, 2027. That day, Madrid will commemorate the 219th anniversary of the popular uprising against the French troops, to formally start the electoral campaign for the municipal and regional elections on May 7 at 0:00 hours, including the Community of Madrid, which will take place on Sunday, May 23, with another absolute popular majority at stake due to Vox’s challenge after the caucus, Le Pen’s allies in Madrid. France in a headline: the second country with the most Spanish residents in the INE, only behind Argentina.
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This is the context in which the French justice decision on Le Pen and her presidential candidacy is framed, the impact on the very future of the EU and the role of authoritarian rights, as a replacement for the old rights. Le Pen, who will make her electronic bracelet an electoral symbol of discontent, will be the political reference of Spanish authoritarianism, while Vox grows due to the unrest of the Madrid DF troubles. France, therefore, as a generator of electoral and political context for when the general elections are held in July 2027 with, of course, budgets approved, if the current transversal and plurinational majority wants to arrive strengthened for the contest. Otherwise, without public accounts, not only will the absolute majority of Ayuso be blown away, but Feijóo could be president even with fewer votes and seats than in 2023. France matters to us more than Trump and his overacting, recognizing himself as a communist on par with Lenin. Le Pen as a replacement for Gaullism is the portrait of the end of an era in Europe and deep down we see Abascal and his already secured vice-presidential ticket, if there are no budgets. The Senate and the Treaty of Friendship with France therefore have their impact both in Madrid and in Paris, although the PP has not yet realized it.
The international context is useful to situate everything happening in Madrid DF; pure confusion
The Moncloa is won by a free politician capable of guaranteeing democratic coexistence by explaining their vision of Spain. And in our State, system, and country, the question remains how many Spains fit inside Spain. A pertinent question to launch on the same day Le Pen wins in France. That is the timing. With the confrontation of political projects and not a plebiscite on a figure as a space. The question will be about the future of a country, housing, security, immigration, plurinationality, the work agenda, cognitive sovereignty in the face of the push of AI, life projects in a Spain where many ideas of Spain fit and not just one or two.
What will be the connection of these 700,000 voters that the PSOE transfers to the right-wing bloc with this international context? How will they act with the results of the French super May of 2027? What will be their vital tone in the face of the victory of the French authoritarians? If Le Pen won, would this voting contingent surely bet on PP and Vox?
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Le Pen’s victory in France will have an emotional impact in Spain. Remember it well. The French super May, as Rajoy would say, will not be a minor matter. In January 2024 we bet on Donald Trump’s victory. Eleven months later, the news came to confirm that result that was already written in the social fabric of the USA. Le Pen, with her bracelet, will make the same transition from convict as Trump. Reflect: presidents with their convictions being voted by millions of people, while a good part of the Spanish right will applaud Le Pen’s victory, at the same time as they want to collapse the legislature with the troubles. The international context is useful to situate everything happening in Madrid DF. Pure confusion. Conclusion: the troubles occupy all the news but do not interrupt the logic of electoral processes, because democracy, more than technology itself, pursues well-being and channels social gaps. The Spain-France universe also tells us that anyone can still win.
Next week
The 700,000 votes
The 700,000 votes that the PSOE gives to the right side prevent any kind of blockage, relaunch, and comeback. This transfer is not attributable to the troubles because it has been coming from afar. It is true that the old Madrid DF explains it by the troubles, but it is another misfocus. The 700,000 votes have another explanation that correlates with the slow settling of the Spanish social fabric towards the right that the left must reverse. Their return journey will not be mechanical. Changes must be offered to them. Some may return and others demobilize.
The hawk eye
The battle of Barcelona
The mayor of Barcelona, Jaume Collboni, is consolidating strongly in the City Council. The 13% direct vote in the last municipal barometer could take him to around 25% of the vote with 12 councilors. 30% of those surveyed believe he will continue governing. It is a very solid base in a context where Vox and Aliança Catalana could achieve 4 councilors. 45% of citizens remain undecided, but trends are already identified 40 weeks before the pre-campaign.
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