Justice, running at half speed in August, has given the Government of Pedro Sánchez a respite with corruption cases, and the outbreak of the Ceuta crisis due to the arrival of more than 70,000 people from Morocco has brought the focus back to immigration, with a visible impact on the right-wing bloc. For now, the PP and Vox, balancing carefully, manage to show more alignment than ever as they reach one hundred days of coalition in Extremadura and Aragón – the first two of the four governments formed in the latest cycle – and have avoided any friction. In these two territories, Vox is deploying full-scale measures rejecting immigration – from the suppression of payments to minors (Aragón) to filing legal appeals against the reception of minors (Extremadura) – although, for now, without causing dissonance with their partners.
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Both parties have placed at the center of their strategy, with differences in tone and intensity, the call for the Government to use legal mechanisms to return migrant minors to Morocco instead of distributing them to the autonomous communities. Both PP and Vox expect the Government to try to use the minors as a weapon to divide their governments, even if that might further weaken the investiture bloc since Junts and PNV have aligned with the right-wing bloc’s discourse. The post-convergent party, with more emphasis, has launched a parliamentary offensive against the Government to learn in detail what happened in Ceuta and has rejected Catalonia’s involvement in any supposed distribution. The Basque nationalists demand the return of the minors to their country of origin.
In the PP’s engine room, Vox’s conciliatory stance has been well received despite the political scenario potentially becoming poisoned because it is a situation identical to July 2024, when the regional governments broke down precisely over the same issue. The balancing acts of both formations are helping to keep the threat of rupture at bay. Publicly, Vox has already said it will not break up because, in its view, the situation is different from 2024 since now the distribution of minors is the Government’s prerogative and, therefore, the PP cannot be blamed.
The partners show harmony at one hundred days of governments in Extremadura and Aragón and rule out a breakup
Both formations have already assured they will comply with the law – although that translates, in their view, into the return of the 1,342 minors counted to date by the Government – and appeal to a 2007 treaty with Morocco to process the return. For now, neither has accepted that if the Government decrees a territorial distribution of the minors, they will host them. However, they implicitly assume this by assuring they will comply with the law.
Beyond these common points – compliance with legality and appeal to the 2007 treaty, a regulation pending Article 35 of the Immigration Law – there are also differences in intensity when addressing the Government. In this regard, Vox has gone much further than the PP. The regional ministers with competencies in minor care from Extremadura, Aragón, and Castilla y León – all from Santiago Abascal – have already announced they will not attend the sectoral conference on Thursday convened by the Executive to address the issue of migrant minors. Sources consulted by La Vanguardia from the three governments indicate that this is a stance shared with the PP. “There is no dissent,” they say. However, it is possible that the autonomous communities governed only by the PP will attend the meeting, according to regional sources.
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Vox is also preparing a broad legal strategy. On one hand, the regional ministers have already announced they will legally challenge all individual files of each migrant minor who does not end up returning to Morocco.
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On the other hand, Vox intends to activate Article 102 of the Constitution so that the Supreme Court opens a criminal investigation against Pedro Sánchez for the management of the Ceuta crisis. However, to bring the initiative to the Congress plenary, Vox needs the support of 88 deputies – it has 33 – and an absolute majority – 176 – to approve it. The PP has not commented on this, while it seems unlikely that Junts will lend support despite the pressure exerted by Aliança Catalana in Catalonia.
With the Ceuta crisis and immigration at the center of the debate, the two parties hope that from September a new door of understanding can open in the alternative majority formed by PP, Vox, and Junts.
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