The Portuguese Parliament rejected this Tuesday the no-confidence motion from the far-right Chega with 104 votes against, 60 in favor, and 62 abstentions, including the decisive ones from the socialist deputies who, for the sake of stability, thus saved the government of the conservative Luís Montenegro. However, the most revealing figure of a debate whose outcome was clear from the very presentation of the motion was not generated by parliamentary arithmetic, but by political dynamics. It concerns the maximum amount of the additional extra payment of 1,611.13 euros that Portuguese pensioners will receive in December. It is part, along with tax reductions for the lowest incomes, of the package of measures announced by a besieged Montenegro, in response to the scandals that have his Interior Minister, Luís Neves, on the ropes, and the growing social unrest due to a much higher fuel cost than in Spain, with more than 30 cents difference on both sides of the border.
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The debate was marked by the first poll placing Chega ultras fighting head-to-head with the socialists and the conservatives sunk in third place
The four and a half hours of discussion of the no-confidence motion consolidated the scenario that was drawn during the summer in which Prime Minister Montenegro felt forced to give up his vacation in a situation increasingly adverse in the polls for his party. It worsened with the poll that CNN Portugal released on Monday night, with a 27.9% vote estimate for the socialist José Luís Carneiro, 27.1% for the ultra André Ventura, and 25.7% for the conservative Luís Montenegro. This is the first time that the leader of Chega not only appears leading the right but even competes for first place, with conservatives sunk, as they would fall almost six points compared to the 2025 elections, while the ultras and socialists would each rise more than four.
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Although it has the endorsement of CNN’s accurate polls in the presidential elections earlier this year, it remains an isolated poll, the first of this political term, which invites caution while waiting for more opinion studies to be published in this new cycle. After 15 months of relative calm following the 2025 elections, instability returns to a Portugal that since January 2022 has elected its parliament three times. However, although the campaign drums sound again, for now a return to the polls seems unlikely, especially because the constitutional power to call elections, the President of the Republic, the socialist António José Seguro, took office in March with the promise to do everything in his power to end the “electoral frenzy” of this decade.
As a balancing act guaranteeing stability, the socialist Carneiro said he abstained to avoid an institutional crisis without failing to give “a vote of no confidence to the Government”
The surprising election of Seguro in the January and February presidential elections marked the beginning of the progressive decline of Montenegro’s government, whose candidate finished a humiliating fifth place in the first round, and generated an unexpected resurrection of the Socialist Party (PS) which, led by José Luís Carneiro, began to lead the polls, but in a context of a clear right-wing majority. Carneiro appears as the other great pillar of stability because he wants to buy time. However, Montenegro’s wear and tear and the offensive of a growing Chega make it difficult. This was seen in Tuesday’s debate when, in a complex balancing act, he explained that his abstention aimed to act as a “block” to the outbreak of an institutional crisis but also meant “a vote of no confidence in the Government.”
This stance of critical abstention towards Montenegro, but marking maximum distance from the ultra André Ventura, was maintained by the rest of the progressive forces, such as the communists, the Left Bloc, and the regionalists of Madeira. Libre, the Portuguese ally of Sumar, broke ranks by voting against, whose founder Rui Tavares made a defense of the Interior Minister even more forceful than Montenegro’s own. “Luís Neves’ crime is not agreeing with Chega and not saying what Chega wants to hear,” said Tavares, referring to the traditional position of this former director of the Judicial Police to deny the link between immigration and crime. That is why his appointment as Interior Minister in February was well received by the center-left. In fact, the socialist Carneiro does not call for his dismissal but, in another balancing act, argues that his authority is at a minimum and he must “answer” for the irregularities for which the prosecution is investigating him.
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On the other hand, Mariana Leitão, leader of Iniciativa Liberal, the smallest right-wing party with nine deputies, who voted against the no-confidence motion, argued that there are only two alternatives for Luís Neves: either leave the government by his own decision or by the prime minister’s. She stated that Montenegro has tied his future to that of the Interior Minister and hinted at several insinuations pointing to the theory that Neves’ remaining in office, after various irregularities in his time as director of the Judicial Police became known earlier this summer, may be because he possesses sensitive information about the prime minister, whom he investigated in the past for the scandals of his consultancy and his house. “Do you keep the minister because you are compromised, you know what I mean?” asked the much less subtle ultra deputy Rita Matías to Montenegro at another point in the debate.
For Neves, Tuesday was a double trial by fire. In the morning, he had a long parliamentary appearance, in which, although he did not provide any substantial clarification about his relationship with a builder friend who did irregular works on a property and in whose company a trailer for synthetic drug production ended up, which after being seized by the police was supposed to be destroyed, unlike previous occasions, he kept his composure and did not get into more trouble. And in the afternoon, he came out confirmed from the no-confidence motion, partly because now Montenegro cannot deliver his head, at least immediately, as that would be a victory for Chega.
Montenegro digs in defending Luís Neves, stating that “he is an excellent minister and Portugal needs him”
“He is an excellent minister and Portugal needs him,” proclaimed Montenegro, who praised Neves’ work in fighting fires and managing borders, while avoiding answering the insistent questions from André Ventura and other deputies about scandals like the trailer one. Montenegro reaffirmed his intention to complete the legislature, accused the opposition of “negativism,” maintained that the country’s situation is overall positive, and although he admitted he could review it, defended his controversial management of hydrocarbon taxes, which the far right even contrasted with Pedro Sánchez’s in Spain.
After losing the vote, Chega deputies celebrated what they consider a political victory, standing and shouting for Minister Neves’ resignation
Emboldened by the success of their German counterparts and the polls, the xenophobic and racist Ventura launched a fierce attack against everyone, starting with Neves, whom he presented as a toxic element for the health of institutions, continuing with Montenegro, for being, according to him, in the hands of a corrupt minister, continuing with the socialists, for putting political calculations before ethics, and ending with those who opposed the motion, like the liberals, whom he called the Government’s “crutches.” After the vote and the resounding rejection of their initiative, the 60 ultra deputies stood up and shouted for Neves’ resignation, in a gesture of triumphant conviction that, in their view, they lost the vote but achieved a political victory.
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