Hostilities between Russia and Ukraine are once again worrying the world, and not just Europe, because they are intensifying in the Black Sea, a vital area for grain exports. This has become in recent weeks the latest battlefield in a conflict that has lasted almost four and a half years, with both sides trying to destroy the economic base of their enemy.
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Kyiv forces launch their drones against oil tankers and crude oil export ports. In the Sea of Azov, vital for fuel supply routes and other Russian products to the annexed Crimean peninsula, the Ukrainian government claims to have attacked more than a hundred ships in July, including oil tankers and cargo ships. Several dozens of ships have also been attacked in open waters of the Black Sea this week.
On Friday, for example, the Ukrainian army said it had attacked 10 cargo ships, one oil tanker, one gas tanker, and one tugboat. In total, 159 vessels from July 6 to 17, according to the head of the Ukrainian army drone forces, Robert Brovdi.
Moscow promises its farmers that they will have the fuel they need to harvest
Formally, Russia has almost overcome its dependence on hydrocarbons. In its structure, the income generated by the export of oil and natural gas has been reduced to 19.7%. But Moscow’s technocrats still prepare the state accounts using the crude oil price as a benchmark, noted this week the newspaper Nezavísimaya Gazeta . The Russian general budgets for this year 2026 were made based on the price of a barrel of Urals oil being about 5,400 rubles (59.9 euros). However, according to the results from January to June, the price was 5,200.
That is why, in Ukraine, they argue that breaking Russia’s oil infrastructure means depriving Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin of important means to finance his military adventure and an effective way to force him to think about negotiating peace. The strategy has hurt Russia in recent months, with attacks on refineries in many regions inside Russia, as well as on ports and export terminals for oil and derivatives. So far, this is not enough for Putin to consider easing the fighting, on the contrary. But it has brought the war to Russian citizens: the severe fuel shortage crisis in almost all regions of Russia is forcing ordinary citizens to make long lines at gas stations to fill their car tanks.
Kyiv intends to keep pressing along the same lines. Now, its targets are Russian oil tankers and other ships to interrupt Russia’s supply routes at sea.
The Black Sea is “fundamental” for Ukraine, says the Foreign Minister
Brovdi keeps count daily. Last Wednesday he boasted about the naval battle with a message on social media. “20:0,” he wrote before explaining that Ukrainian forces had hit two dozen Russian ships that day. According to this commander, the target of the Ukrainian unmanned devices is the so-called “ghost fleet” that Russia uses to evade international sanctions.
The attacks by Ukrainian drones in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea have hit both oil tankers and cargo ships. Russia has been forced to limit maritime traffic in the Azov, through which, according to journalistic estimates, a quarter of its grain exports transit.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Ukraine this week of “terrorism” for attacking civilian vessels. And the Ministry of Agriculture has announced that it is studying the diversion of grain and agricultural product export routes to other regions and other ports. The head of this department, Oxana Lut, said on Friday that Russia will have a good harvest this year and promised that despite the current gasoline crisis, farmers will receive the fuel they need to harvest the grain.
Kyiv continues its plan to cut Russian income from crude sales: first refineries, now oil tankers
Russian attacks on the Ukrainian zone are not doing less damage to Kyiv’s finances. The country, also one of the world’s top exporters, has lost a third of its capacity to load grain from its Black Sea ports, according to the main Ukrainian agricultural union, the Agrarian Council of Ukraine (CAU).
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The reason is that Russian missiles and drones have intensified their attacks in recent weeks against the deep-water ports of southern Ukraine, in the Odesa province, in response to the actions of Ukrainian drones. In a weekly report published last Tuesday, the CAU indicates that Russia “systematically attacks port infrastructure, terminals, and the entire transport logistics chain, using ballistic missiles again and again.” The Russian Ministry of Defense said on Friday that in one week it had hit 24 ships used by the Ukrainian army: 14 cargo ships, three ferries, two container ships, one oil tanker, one crane ship, one floating dock, and two smaller vessels.
From these ports, Ukraine sends for sale on international markets more than 90% of its agricultural products, such as grains and vegetable oils. After more than four years of war, this trade remains the largest source of foreign currency income for Ukraine.
Cross attacks have a severe economic impact on the agricultural sector of both countries
The port of Chornomorsk has had to drastically reduce grain reception, according to the Ukrainian state railway company Ukrzaliznitsia. Since early July, according to this company, 901,300 tons of grain have been sent to these ports, an amount “lower than last month.” This week, Ukraine’s main grain exporter, Kernel Holding, announced it had suspended its operations in Chornomorsk due to Russian attacks.
As an example, Russia is the top wheat exporter (although the third largest producer, behind China and India), with 16% of global sales by volume in 2025. Another of the world’s largest granaries is Ukraine. In recent years, its wheat exports represented 6% of global exports (ranking fifth to seventh, depending on the season).
The maritime war and the interruption of activity in the ports can have consequences on global grain markets. The first is price increases. On Wednesday, the milling wheat (the benchmark) for September soared 7% on the Euronext in Paris, reaching the highest in a year. On the Chicago exchange, wheat futures rose 5%, although gains were taken on Thursday.
Russia has responded to attacks on its ships in the Azov by striking ports around Odesa
The situation could even worsen. So far, Ukrainian attacks have focused on the Sea of Azov and the northern Black Sea. The ports in the east of these waters, in the Russian Krasnodar Krai, have also received visits from Ukrainian drones in recent months. But their attacks have focused on energy infrastructure and oil terminals. On April 28 and May 27, Ukrainian attacks hit the refinery at the port of Tuapse, which processes about 12 million tons per year, causing a halt in its activity.
Novorossiisk, whose energy infrastructure has also been attacked in the past, could remain a target. This city houses the main port for exporting Russian wheat.
A situation similar to the first year of the war is being experienced again, when a pact mediated by the UN was necessary to guarantee the safety of cargo ships and facilitate exports from Ukraine and Russia.
Ukraine argues that reducing Russian income from crude sales is an effective strategy towards peace
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sibiha said on Thursday that the Black Sea “is the main route for the export of Ukrainian products” and therefore “a fundamental issue.” He called for the restoration of freedom of navigation through these waters.
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