There are political crises that summer sweeps away. The one in Ceuta, on the other hand, presents facets that will have repercussions until the end of the legislature. Pedro Sánchez misjudged the consequences of the assault at the beginning and, already on the back foot, is not managing to overshadow this focus. On the contrary, the crisis acquires new ramifications. Let’s focus on some:
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Shift in immigration
When it comes to immigration, it must be taken into account that perceptions have changed. For the 80,000 Ceutans, it is very difficult to live with the arrival of about 10,000 more people whose basic needs must be met. For the rest of Spaniards, there is not the same receptivity that followed the entry of Ukrainians fleeing the war, for example. Not even PSOE voters see the images of Ceuta the same way as Trump’s ICE raids. It would be worth seeing if Sánchez himself would now offer to host the migrants from Aquarius. By the way, back then even Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s Galicia opened its doors to them. These are different times.
Inefficiency
The Government is showing a lack of efficiency. In the first days, at Moncloa they believed that hot returns would minimize the impact. But it soon became clear that police and NGO figures did not match. The Executive complains about the lack of information (both from the CNI and the security forces) and about obstacles from the Ceuta president, Juan Jesús Vivas, of the PP, but that does not exempt the Executive from assuming its responsibility. At this point, it is likely that Sánchez regrets not having taken control of the city. He may need to assess if there is still time if he does not want a feeling of ineffectiveness, powerlessness, and governmental wear to settle in.
The street and deception
The PP’s strategy can be summed up in one phrase: “Sánchez knew and did not act.” The Popular Party equates this case to 11-M by calling it a “state lie.” That comparison has been assumed by the socialist Emiliano García-Page and the ERC spokesperson, Gabriel Rufián. The Popular Party also suggests that the president is a hostage of Morocco because his phone was spied on in 2022. It is not known who attacked the phone or what was obtained, but it was done with the Pegasus program, a company with Israeli and American capital. Morocco is now an ally of those two countries, so it is strange that Sánchez does not want to antagonize Rabat for that reason but does with Netanyahu or Trump. It is easier to agree that if the president seeks to preserve the relationship with Morocco to prevent what happened from happening again, even more intensely. But that leniency towards the neighboring country is not shared by most of the population, who find it impossible that Mohamed VI’s regime did not notice the movement of 72,000 people. The worst thing for a ruler in a crisis is that the vast majority of citizens do not believe their explanations.
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Diplomacy
This crisis leads to a diplomatic conflict. For now not with the Spanish Government, although a visit by the King to Ceuta would complicate relations. But yes with the PP. Feijóo has bet everything on a malicious connivance between Morocco and Sánchez, but that could have consequences if he reaches the presidency. Rabat’s latest statement shows that the regime has taken note. Also, the PP has supported Vox’s initiative in Castilla y León that demands the Government break the friendship treaty with Morocco and review relations. A similar vote in Congress would be a big deal.
Secret services and transparency
The statement seems like an oxymoron. It all started with Margarita Robles. The Defense Minister was the first to appear in Congress and made it clear that the CNI warned. The Interior Minister contradicted her and the rest of the Government supported Fernando Grande-Marlaska. Moncloa decided to publish the documents about the assault showing that the CNI warned the Ceuta Civil Guard and via WhatsApp the chief of staff of the Government delegate. A warning about a massive assault, without specifying the volume except a reference to the 180,000 followers of the groups promoting entry on social networks. After declassification and seeing that accusations against the Government increased, Robles agreed to publish a note admitting that what happened “was a phenomenon of an unforeseeable magnitude.” Generally, governments control the Security Forces and secret services, but here there is a breach, even a constant struggle. The clash with the CNI is not minor. The espionage services were already questioned for not having found the ballot boxes in Catalonia and are not willing to assume a new fiasco. Conclusion: a Government distant from its secret services.
And, in the end, the judges
The clash between the judicial leadership and the Executive is red hot and now Ceuta is added. The National Court judge María Tardón has opened an investigation following a complaint from a far-right party, Iustitia Europa, to find out if there was a “hybrid attack” by Morocco. There is no criminal type that corresponds to the concept of “hybrid attack,” so it will be necessary to specify who ordered and executed it, something difficult. But the case can be expanded to the Government’s responsibility if it is shown that it had information to prevent the avalanche. The judge will have to summon the CNI to testify and we will see how far the Executive’s responsibility escalates for alleged negligence, no less, in the defense of its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The icing on the legislature.
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