The image of a railway intersection in an advertisement was used in 2017 to call for the 1-O and end up before the judge. “You were born with the ability to decide. Will you give up?”. Now the railway crossing is played by ERC, but not heading towards independence, rather between Vilanova i la Geltrú and Mataró. The message with the tracks distributed by ERC is more pragmatic, although not without uncertainties in its execution: “50 years later new train lines will be built in Catalonia. And they will be made thanks to Esquerra,” the poster reads. The roadmap of the republican leadership to squeeze the budget pact with the PSC was running at full speed until it hit a switch change controlled by Gabriel Rufián.
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The image of the signing of the budget pact that supports the legislature has faded within hours, victim of the agenda of the ERC spokesperson in Madrid. The Gothic gallery of the Palau de la Generalitat is full of solemnity, but it cannot compete with the ideological clash generated by seeing an independentist republican offering himself as the lead candidate of a new left-wing project in the conservative and elitist Club Siglo XXI.
Rufián is one of the few elements of ERC that Oriol Junqueras’ leadership does not keep under control. The party leadership deployed publicly and privately on Thursday to contain the discontent of ERC deputies in Madrid and many officials who perceive Rufián as disloyal. Within the republican ranks there is the conviction that their spokesperson in Madrid does not want to leave the party, but his agenda distances him from the reality of ERC. Rufián sets conditions for his candidacy for ERC, wants to control the list and the technical positions of the group in Madrid, but the dialogue is complex and a situation of “unlikely calm” settles in.
Junqueras has taken two photos with Illa that fade due to Rufián’s agenda
Junqueras has taken two photos this week with President Salvador Illa and ERC negotiators have joined the Govern in meetings with economic agents to sell pacts and investments, but in ERC they ended up answering questions about Rufián’s challenge. The sarcasm of a party leader shows the exhaustion: “There was no money to bring Rufián back to Catalonia.”
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With amnesty pending, Junqueras has bet on stability in Catalonia and on bolstering the image of a responsible party against Junts. Illa juggles protests from teachers and doctors and the collapse of infrastructures, and his influence in Moncloa is conditioned by scandals of alleged corruption. Now with José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in the crosshairs. ERC’s largest electoral border borders the PSC, and along with the budget pact, the republicans try to deploy an image of “national ambition” that the socialists lack.
After the succession of agreements with Illa, why doesn’t ERC enter the Govern? Junqueras’ team believes that, in a moment of political wear and disorientation, pragmatism gains ground and it is not their “turn” to hold office again. ERC achieved its highest level of power and fell from 33 to 20 deputies in three years of Govern. After the split between Junqueras and Marta Rovira, the “two souls” of the party are not ready to address that divisive debate. The bet is on the “accumulation of forces” thinking about the municipal elections. The orbital train line that includes the budget pact gives ERC a narrative in the second metropolitan ring, under PSC control. And with less fanfare, but much clatter, Junts competes in the field with a neighborhood plan for small and rural municipalities endowed with 400 million.
The ERC leadership believes that the first two stages of the electoral cycle starting next May will be favorable. They have laid the foundations of their narrative in the municipal elections while Junts get tangled in a candidate struggle in Barcelona. And in the general elections… they are in Rufián’s hands. He is their best asset, but also untamable. His internal demands have more to do with his break with the group in Madrid than with defining a single left-wing list. In ERC they maintain that the front proposed by Rufián “does not add up” and they flatly reject dissolving into a coalition. Rufián does not pay attention to accounts, especially if they are Catalonia’s.
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