It seemed impossible, and many still have doubts, that an idea as simple as peace would be part of Russia’s upcoming legislative elections on September 20. But supporters of ending the war in Ukraine will have their chance, even if only to express it secretly at the polls and ultimately not change the more than predictable outcome. No one doubts that the Kremlin party, United Russia, will comfortably win again, despite its popularity crisis.
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Weeks after the Ministry of Justice removed the pacifist opposition figure Boris Nadezhdin from the electoral race, declaring him a “foreign agent,” who had already tried to challenge Vladimir Putin in the 2024 presidential elections, the Central Election Commission (CEC) has given the green light to the only still legal democratic opposition party in Russia, Yabloko.
The veteran liberal party, founded in 1993, is also the only legal Russian political party that advocates, without the euphemisms typical of this era, for peace. Russians now have their first opportunity “to vote legally and safely for peace and freedom, to support a ceasefire agreement,” said the party president, Nikolai Rybakov, after their lists were approved on Wednesday, recalling the slogan with which they are running in the elections: ‘For peace and freedom. For a life without fear’.
The presence of Yabloko may deprive the main rivals of Putin’s party of protest votes
But the party has been suffering all kinds of pressures for years. Its top figures will not be able to run. About 40 prominent members across the country have lost the right to run after being declared “foreign agents” or being implicated in criminal or administrative cases, like Rybakov himself, who was fined last year for “displaying extremist symbols.” Some of its leaders have even been sentenced to prison for their criticism of the war launched by Putin on February 24, 2022.
The Yabloko lists approved by the CEC include 269 candidates. Another 135 candidates will be able to run individually in district voting. According to the Russian electoral system, half of the 450 deputies of the Duma (the lower house of parliament) are elected by party lists; the other half, by single-member constituencies.
The four parties with parliamentary representation that formally appear as opposition are actually a fake opposition. They avoid any criticism of the Kremlin like the plague, and much more so of its policies on Ukraine. In fact, the Communist Party, A Just Russia, New People, and the Liberal Democratic Party have actively supported Putin’s party, United Russia, in adopting laws during wartime.
That is why the appearance of Yabloko on the ballots adds an argument to the campaign that was not previously considered. Perhaps the authorities need a channel where citizens can focus their discontent without subtracting votes from United Russia, as some media and political analysts suggest.
Polls indicate that second place will be between the Communist Party and New People
If peace is going to gather that discontent through Yabloko, it is very likely to dissipate into thin air, as the party is not expected to surpass the 5% threshold needed to enter the Duma. At the same time, it avoids the possibility that this protest vote boosts the results of the Communist Party or New People, the parties fighting for second place.
The presence of Yabloko also allows the authorities to say that these elections are pluralistic, even though in recent years they have crushed the opposition.
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According to the latest survey by the Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), United Russia maintains the lead in voting intention at 32.7% (two points less than a week earlier); the Communist Party has 11.9%; New People, 10.5%; the Liberal Democratic Party, 9.6%; and A Just Russia, 5.4%.
After the candidate registration process carried out by the CEC during July, eleven formations will run in the Russian general elections. The previous five plus six others that do not have parliamentary representation in the outgoing Duma: Yabloko, Communists of Russia, the Pensioners’ Party, Rodina (Motherland), the Direct Democracy Party, and The Greens.
The decline in popularity of United Russia threatens its large absolute majority
United Russia is currently suffering a severe popularity crisis, mainly due to the restrictions Russians face because of the war. The current gasoline shortage crisis caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries is the latest fire that is costing it support. Even so, its lead is quite large, especially because it usually increases its results thanks to deputies elected by constituencies. Still, its huge current absolute majority (more than two-thirds) may be at risk.
Yabloko has said that despite having passed this process, it expects “a difficult campaign.” The party “does not have illusions but has hopes,” said the number one on the lists, Yaroslav Scherbakov, who leads the formation in Chelyabinsk. These hopes involve surpassing the 5% barrier and entering the Duma.
The approval of their lists in the legislative elections contrasts with the difficulties the party is encountering in presenting candidates in the regional and local elections to be held on the same day, especially in areas where it already has deputies or councilors. Dozens of party members have seen their candidacies rejected by local commissions.
The latest exclusion of pacifist candidates occurred on July 29, when the Supreme Court of Karelia annulled Yabloko’s list for the elections in that northern region of European Russia.
Flagbearer of peace, the veteran liberal party Yabloko also fights to survive
It has also been unable to present candidates in the Tambov region, in the local elections in Petrozavodsk (the capital of Karelia), and in Saint Petersburg. This last exclusion is a major blow, as in recent years it has had its own parliamentary group in the country’s second city.
If in this year’s elections it does not manage to get a single deputy either in the regions or in the Duma, in the next legislative elections Yabloko will have to collect signatures if they want to run again. And that is a huge risk in the Russian political system. In the past, the Ministry of Justice has eliminated dozens of political structures alleging that they were not running in elections. Flagbearer of peace, Yabloko also fights to survive.
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