The swans, ducks, and geese of Lake Tjörnin, the idyllic urban pond in Reykjavik, swim peacefully under the cool August sun, unaware of the division with which Icelandic society faces today’s referendum on whether to resume negotiations with Brussels for accession to the European Union (EU). The ballot result is expected to be very close.
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A survey by the consulting firm Gallup released on Thursday by the public broadcaster RÚV indicated that 51.6% of respondents oppose reopening talks, while 48.4% support it. The day before, Wednesday, a poll by the Maskina institute published by the newspaper Visir found that 51.3% are in favor of sitting down again to negotiate with the EU, compared to 48.7% who are against. The difference is minimal. The outcome is very uncertain.
“This referendum seeks to obtain a definitive answer to a question that has remained unanswered for decades; we have been members of the European Economic Area (EEA) for 30 years, and everything has gone well, but our currency is very unstable,” argues Dagbjört Hákonardóttir, a deputy of the Social Democratic Alliance, the main party of the tripartite coalition government promoting the consultation.
Tight contest
The referendum result is expected to be very close: the latest poll gives a slight advantage to no, but the previous one gives it to yes
In addition to participating in the single market through the EEA since 1994, like Norway and Liechtenstein, Iceland has been in the Schengen area since 2001. The country is an enthusiastic member of the Erasmus university exchange program.
“Those of us in favor of yes try to approach the consultation from an open perspective; our goal is ‘yes, let’s negotiate,’ and if we then reach a good agreement with the EU, maybe we say yes or no. As part of the European Economic Area, in Iceland we receive all kinds of EU regulations over which we have no voice or vote; we have no political presence in Brussels,” Hákonardóttir argues in an interview at the Althingi, the unicameral parliament of 63 seats, a short distance from where the birds enjoy themselves at Lake Tjörnin. The Social Democrats of Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir and her liberal partners trust that this gradual approach will attract undecided and cautious voters.
Supporters of voting yes mainly cite economic and stability arguments. They claim that rampant inflation would be reduced, and prices of food, housing, and transportation, currently sky-high, would fall. Those opposed fear a loss of sovereignty and control over natural resources. Fishing is so important in the national economy and consciousness that the referendum promoters assume the EU should grant some kind of exception to Icelandic fishing grounds, or there will never be accession.
A yes victory in the referendum would lead to resuming negotiations with Brussels, which have been stalled since 2015. Iceland had applied for EU membership in 2009 due to the financial crisis, but in 2013, the then-new conservative government froze talks, which ended two years later.
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If new negotiations prove fruitful, Iceland would hold a second referendum to decide yes or no on accession, after which the 27 member states would have to accept its entry. If this North Atlantic island of 103,000 square kilometers – similar in size to Cuba – inhabited by barely 400,000 people, became the 28th country of the European Union, it would have six deputies in the European Parliament.
“It is really worrying the severe loss of memory occurring in Iceland; all EU experts and pro-EU politicians now have no idea what the EU is, so they want us to request negotiations to see what it means to be part of the EU,” says ironically Gudlaugur Thór Thórdarson, a deputy of the Independence Party, one of the champions of no. Thórdarson, who at different times since 2007 was Minister of Health, Foreign Affairs, and Environment, Energy and Climate, lashes out at Brussels while we talk in the lobby of the Althingi.
Fears of the no supporters
On this Atlantic island, independent only since 1944, the idea of sovereignty is therefore deeply rooted in Icelanders, and many believe the EU is a risk
“The EU will never want to change the regulatory framework; it uses the regulatory framework as the basis of its power; we are a recently independent and sovereign nation, and in 80 years we went from being one of the poorest nations to an extraordinary success in economy and living standards; we would not have achieved this if we had been in the EU,” Thórdarson maintains.
After centuries of Norwegian or Danish colonization, Iceland achieved self-government in 1904 and fully gained independence from Denmark in 1944. Due to that past of foreign domination, for many Icelanders the debate about the EU is emotional and revolves around sovereignty. In this island society, younger Icelanders tend to be more receptive to EU membership than older generations, and urban voters in Reykjavik are more pro-European than those in rural fishing communities.
“Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?” is the wording of the question submitted to referendum. By focusing on whether to reopen negotiations or not, instead of directly asking about accession, it tries to build bridges amid division, offering skeptics the guarantee that a yes vote will not be the last word.
A campaign with few references to Trump
Security without an army in a country that trusts the United States
Iceland is a founding member of NATO – the alliance was created in 1949 – but has no armed forces, only a coast guard service. By a bilateral agreement of 1951, the United States assumes the defense of this strategic North Atlantic island. The harassment of neighboring Greenland by U.S. President Donald Trump has been absent from the referendum campaign, as has geopolitics in general. All Icelandic parties tread carefully so as not to upset Washington. “I want to emphasize that we are very close to the United States and value that relationship highly; the 1951 agreement has always been the basis of our defense. Our participation in the EU and possible accession must be kept out of the debate about whether Trump is reliable or not, although of course some Icelanders will take that into account when voting,” says Social Democratic deputy Dagbjört Hákonardóttir. For former minister Gudlaugur Thór Thórdarson, of the Independence Party, Iceland’s membership in NATO is more than enough guarantee. “The United States is also interested in maintaining the 1951 agreement for obvious reasons; they do not want Russia or China to control Iceland, as that would be very difficult for their own defense and security,” says Thórdarson. “And we all know that, unfortunately, the EU cannot defend itself, although I hope and wish that changes in the near future.”
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