The Andalusian elections have left an especially harsh picture for the PSOE. Juanma Moreno’s Popular Party came close to an absolute majority, falling just two seats short of governing alone, while the socialists recorded one of the worst results in their history in a region that for decades was one of their main electoral strongholds. For Jaume Aroca, head of the Politics section at La Vanguardia, the scenario left after the polls reveals a deep crisis in Andalusian socialism: “The PSOE is absolutely decimated.”
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The PSOE has had five absolute majorities in Andalusia and today has 28 deputies. That gives you an idea of the catastrophe”
Jaume V. Aroca
Head of the Politics section at La Vanguardia
During his analysis on Claves del día, Aroca emphasized that the socialist decline goes far beyond the loss of the regional government. “Not only has it lost the Junta, but all the provincial councils except Seville are in the hands of the Popular Party and the vast majority of cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants as well,” he explained. In his view, the territorial structure of the Andalusian PSOE “is at a minimum,” something that will force the party to face “a huge task” of reconstruction over the coming years.
Despite the poor result, Aroca rejected interpreting María Jesús Montero’s candidacy solely as a personal bet by Pedro Sánchez. He recalled that the former first vice president of the Government has a long political career in Andalusia and was chosen by the Andalusian socialist leadership itself to try to regain ground. Still, he admitted the magnitude of the electoral setback: “The PSOE has had five absolute majorities in Andalusia and today has 28 deputies. That gives you an idea of the catastrophe.”
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Moreno has spent much of his campaign saying he did not want to make a pact with Vox and now he has to backtrack, the price will be high”
Jaume V. Aroca
Head of the Politics section at La Vanguardia
On the right-wing bloc, the PP managed to confirm the poll forecasts, although without reaching the absolute majority Juanma Moreno sought. This brings Vox back to the center of political negotiation. Aroca considers it unlikely that Santiago Abascal’s party will give up entering the Andalusian government or, at least, clearly conditioning the legislature from outside. “Moreno has spent much of his campaign saying he did not want to make a pact with Vox and now he has to backtrack,” he said. And he warned: “In any case, the price will be high.”
Although Andalusia joins other territories where the right has been strengthened in recent years, Aroca urged caution before automatically extrapolating these results to future general elections. The journalist recalled that there is a “differential vote” between regional and national elections and that a significant part of the electorate behaves differently depending on the political context. “There are citizens who, when they think about Spain, vote one way and when they think about their autonomous community, vote another,” he concluded.
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