How the years have passed!, as the song goes. In 1982, an internally questioned Argentine Military Junta invaded the Falklands as a distraction maneuver, the United Kingdom responded with all its military might, and the victory in the war – with the consequent nationalist euphoria – saved the skin of Margaret Thatcher whose administration was not taking off and seemed about to be ended. She remained in power until 1990, carried out her neoliberal revolution, and the rest is history.
Now, an Argentine far-right leader also questioned internally (Javier Milei) and with doubts about his reelection again claims sovereignty over the disputed South Atlantic archipelago and threatens sanctions against the Israeli and British companies that are about to exploit the oil fields 200 kilometers north of its coast, and London insists as it did 44 years ago on defending the right to self-determination of the 3600 Falklanders, technically an overseas territory of the United Kingdom, and one of the few colonies it still has.
But when Milei says that “the winds of change” are playing in favor of the Argentine claim, he is not entirely wrong, because two fundamental factors have changed. On one hand, Trump has hinted that he might not support the British in a war as Reagan reluctantly did (his policy on this is “under review”), and the military power of this country, although much superior to Argentina’s and still one of the largest in the world (38,000 personnel and 60 ships), is not what it was in 1982. There is a shortage of sailors and spare parts, and its aircraft carriers, submarines, and cruisers spend more time in the workshop than in the oceans. The destroyer HMS Dragon took two weeks to reach the Akrotiri base in Cyprus after the attack last March.
“The Falklands (as the islands are called here) are British and will remain so, and our support for the right to self-determination of their inhabitants remains unchanged,” said Foreign Office Secretary Ed Miliband, after recalling that in a referendum held in 2013, 99.8% of the population said they wanted to remain subjects of Her Majesty (only three voted otherwise), and not of a geographically closer country that could be led either by the military or by a far-right populist armed with a chainsaw who uses a medium to talk to his dog.
In 1982 the victory in the Falklands rescued Thatcher from a crisis that could have ended her administration
How far Milei would be willing to go, what Washington’s final position would be (it is currently neutral on the conflict and accepts the de facto control of the Falklands by the United Kingdom), and whether the Royal Navy would be in a position to recover the territory as it did almost four and a half decades ago are unknowns. What is a fact is that Labour Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces his first international crisis.
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The leader of the Conservative opposition, Kemi Badenoch, did not waste a second blaming the situation on the decision to hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean to Mauritius – another British overseas territory, like the Falklands – and pay billions for the lease of Diego Garcia, a joint military base with the United States of high strategic value for operations in the Middle East. It is one of the topics on Burnham’s agenda for his expected meeting with Trump at the UN General Assembly, and now he has to add the Falklands.
The 1.7 billion barrels of oil in the “Sea Lion” field north of the Falklands are more than all the fuel in British waters, and its exploitation is expected to begin within two years and last until at least 2060. The rights owners are the British company Rockhooper Exploration (35%) and the Israeli Navitas (the remaining 65%). The Burnham Government is preparing to reconsider its environmental commitments and authorize natural gas exploration in the North Sea as a pragmatic measure to try to reduce domestic energy costs. The high cost of living is the greatest concern of voters, and the reason many of them support authoritarian far-right rulers.
A new conflict in the Falklands could deliver the final blow to a British economy strangled by debt
In 1982, Great Britain won the war in 74 days, after sending a total of 43 ships to the South Atlantic (including two aircraft carriers, 15 frigates, 6 submarines, and 6 destroyers), plus another 22 logistical support vessels. Whether they would now be able to reach the Falklands without breaking down halfway is a good question, as is what the impact would be on an economy in crisis, with a public debt of three trillion and in the eye of the bond markets, which can barely increase its Defense budget.
Another thing has also changed since ’82: then Prince Andrew returned from the Falklands as a hero for piloting a helicopter, and now he is a pariah. How the years have passed!
