European justice will rule next week on the amnesty that Pedro Sánchez’s Government approved for the leaders of the procés. If it endorses it, the greatest constitutional crisis in Spain in this democratic era will be about to conclude. Meanwhile, Catalan society has shifted its concerns since that autumn of 2017 when judicial actions against the members of the Govern were triggered following the unilateral declaration of independence, but politics has not abandoned populism as a tool to approach voters. On the contrary, this trend has intensified. The dizzying rise of Aliança Catalana (AC) shown by all polls is a phenomenon that reveals to what extent this society shares the attitudes of its European environment. Marine Le Pen has more chances than ever to become president of France, just as the rise of independence coincided with Brexit.
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There are many causes for Aliança’s rise. From dissatisfaction with socioeconomic conditions, through the failure of the procés, the deterioration of public services, or the influence of social networks. The lever driving its ascent is common to the rest of the current popular populisms: the reproach of immigration as the origin of almost all evils based on an exclusive nationalism summarized in the slogan “Catalans first.” If during the procés the slogan that lit the fuse was “Spain robs us,” now Aliança significantly forgets Spain and a message that is exhausted to focus its discourse on the threat of the “caliphate.”
With these elements, the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO) of the Generalitat, in line with other polls, grants Silvia Orriols’s party a rise from the current two deputies to 24, nearly reaching second place in the Parliament. The consequences for Catalan politics (and probably for Spanish politics in the future) are unpredictable. But a new polarizing axis of society is already visible. If for more than a decade the division revolved around supporters and opponents of independence, it remains to be seen whether what is now forming is a classic clash between left and right, with the latter taken to the extreme, or a confrontation between forces defending current institutions and the expansion of civil rights, that is, the liberal democracy bloc, and those seeking a reduction of freedoms in the name of security and the preservation of identity, which we could call the illiberal-inspired bloc, with AC and Vox (almost 30% of the Chamber, according to the CEO), in which progressives try to include the PP.
The discourse that PSOE and PP are the same is no longer profitable for Junts
In that scheme, trying to maintain equidistance does not yield benefits. It is one of the factors harming Junts. The most striking aspect of the CEO poll is the rise of Aliança and its counterpart in the fall of a party heir to the hegemonic force in Catalonia for more than three decades. To the extent that it is increasingly evident that the PP will only be able to govern with an alliance with Vox, it becomes complicated for Junts to maintain equidistance between the Populars and Socialists, the discourse that both are two sides of the same coin from the point of view of a Catalan independentist.
Mané Espinosa
Carles Puigdemont only counts on his seven deputies in Congress to set his message, as they are not decisive in Catalonia. If the amnesty is finally applied to him, he will be able to take the reins of the party and decide by November whether to give Sánchez a lifeline in the form of budgets or not. At Moncloa, they believe the no is already secured, but they are willing to negotiate economic counterbalances besides trying to fulfill pending commitments so that Junts can join.
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In any case, after the municipal elections in May, Junts will have to make decisions about Aliança, that is, in which bloc it positions itself when reaching agreements to govern local institutions. Orriols’s party hopes to gain representation in Barcelona, which will allow it to overcome an image tied to inland Catalonia and thus make a qualitative leap. In Barcelona is where tensions within Junts between defenders of the old Convergència style, supporters of Puigdemont, and other internal currents have been visualized like nowhere else.
Aliança will present about 150 candidacies throughout Catalonia and may condition some Junts mayoralties. The PSC will extend a hand to Puigdemont, but if he accepts, he will place himself alongside his main competitors in the Generalitat, the Socialists and ERC. The Catalan government is in the hands of an increasingly explicit left-wing alliance after the support of the Republicans and the Comuns for Salvador Illa’s budgets. According to the CEO, the strategy is profitable for ERC, although the poll reflects some doping derived from the “Rufián effect.” Oriol Junqueras’s party attracts votes from the PSC thanks to the figure of its spokesperson in Congress, which causes so many internal problems for ERC’s leadership and its bases. It is a fact to consider, since it indicates that right now transfers between parties occur more due to ideological axis influence than the independentist one.
The PP and Vox no longer receive the extra votes from those motivated against secession. Perhaps that is why the Populars intend to talk to Catalans about issues other than the procés. Moreover, if it were up to the PP, it would be better for Puigdemont to return as soon as possible and, as Alberto Núñez Feijóo said, turn the page to focus on the message of ousting Sánchez from Moncloa. The political earthquake brewing in Catalonia will eventually affect Spanish politics at some point. It is well known that history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.
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