By this time next year, several candidacies will have already been presented for the North American presidential elections in November 2028. Campaigns are increasingly expensive and complex, and nothing can be left to chance.
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On the Democratic side, Gavin Newsom, former mayor of San Francisco and current governor of California, is considered a sure candidate, but several other candidacies will surely run, especially if the Democratic Party gains control of one or both chambers of Congress in the November legislative elections.
On the Democratic side, Gavin Newsom, former mayor of San Francisco and current governor of California, is considered a sure candidate
But the current focus is on the covert struggle taking place within the Republican Party to designate Donald Trump’s successor, now that the voices suggesting the possibility of a third term—blatantly unconstitutional—by the Mar-a-Lago emperor have been silenced for the moment. There is little doubt that he remains the master and lord of the party.
In just a few weeks, he has ended the careers of two Republican senators and one congressman who dared to criticize him, using the usual procedure of making them lose the primary elections to another candidate more favored by the White House.
Obviously, the current situation is marked by the rivalry over the purple legacy held – with as much discretion as possible – by Vice President James David Vance, 41 years old, better known as J.D. Vance, and Secretary of State – among other roles – Marco Antonio Rubio, just turned 55, the first U.S. Secretary of State of Hispanic origin.
Vance has history on his side: no less than six of the last fourteen presidents, almost half, previously held the vice presidency. Although he has fewer functions than Rubio, he performs a crucial task for a future presidential campaign, the financial management of the Republican National Committee, which allows him to be in contact with major fund donors.
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His economic populism fits well with the working-class and rural base of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement, but it raises doubts about his true convictions; after all, he is a protégé of Peter Thiel, an ultra-conservative businessman who founded PayPal with Elon Musk and is a key figure at Palantir Technologies, a leading company in the defense sector.
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More difficult to accept are his isolationist attitudes in foreign policy, which have placed him in an uncomfortable position regarding the botched operations carried out by Trump and Netanyahu in Iran and Lebanon. Especially embarrassing was his mission to Pakistan, returning empty-handed, not to mention his rally in Budapest to support Viktor Orbán just days before the overwhelming defeat of the Hungarian ultra.
Marco Rubio, on the other hand, with extensive political experience – president of the Florida House of Representatives, federal senator for 14 years, and Trump’s rival in the 2016 Republican primaries – may benefit from what has happened in Venezuela and what may happen in Cuba, the homeland of his parents. He seems, in short, to have more political experience and firmer convictions than Vice President Vance.
Neither should expect, in any case, that President Trump will step back into a discreet second plane, as he looks set to exercise his powers to the fullest until January 20, 2029, the date of the inauguration of his eventual successor.
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