Sunday, which according to etymology is the day of the Lord, like all the others, in ancient Rome was the day dedicated to the Sun. History is made of analogies that sometimes become equivalences. So, having reached the equinox of the campaign in Andalusia, it is worth saying that the main mystery of 17M – will Moreno be able to govern alone? – still does not have a convincing environmental answer. The factual outcome will be decided by the polls. But the starting scenario has already shifted enough to predict some possible surprise.
Read more Slogans, emotion and Andalusian pride: the campaign decided in a few words
The PP candidate wanted a painless, colorless but not bland campaign, rather full of sentimentality. This is what the Quirinale calls the Andalusian way: politics made meme. Andalusia summarized in the chorus of a song (full of rhymes). Smiles, applause, and lollipops for everyone. No one questions the arithmetic victory of the Great Laurel, whose goal is to maintain the hegemony that voters granted him in mid-2022. But all his objective advantages – the natural visibility of his position, the handling of the public budget, the subsidized popularity – are not shielded against the principle of reality.
It is enough for some of the electoral remains of each of the eight provinces of the great southern autonomy to change hands for the numbers of what his team of four evangelists calls “institutional stability” – which is nothing but personal – to shift into the hostile scenario of a victory without a majority. This was perceived in the first television tournament among the five contenders – tomorrow Monday will be the second on Canal Sur, the television that San Telmo promised to reform and has ended up using as a watering hole for its faithful executors – when, despite the prevailing disorder, his opponents managed to turn his good disposition into a deep silence and, at times, a serious expression.
Read more The Andalusian campaign gets tangled in the ‘petaqueo’
Moreno, who is delighted to know himself, although he hides it better than the Almighty Montero, the Argonaut Maíllo, the Encarregat Gavira (Vox) or José Ignatius (García), the green Trotskyist carriage of Adelante Andalucía, does not fear for his victory. He is worried about the setback that awaits him within a week if he does not obtain an indisputable majority. The debate mess is a joke compared to the catenaccio that the ultramontanes have prepared for him if the occasion arises.
The socialists, lost in their particular galaxy, do not measure up to Moreno. They compete against their own decline, just as the left minorities confront each other, consummating the fragmentation of a limited political space, to see which will be the reddest lantern. What in this countdown causes Moreno’s gestural gravity, who no longer smiles with such naturalness and enthusiasm, is ending – like Aznar before Felipe González – achieving a bitter victory. It would be worse than a defeat because, unless he decides to precipitate a repeat election (in a suicidal gesture), it will force him to forever break the golden image of his character.
Read more Inma Cuesta: “I am resentful; when someone deeply hurts me, I do not forget”
