The United States and Iran have resumed hostilities, the price of Brent crude has risen again to $95 a barrel, and six months later, the interrupted diplomacy does not allow for a glimpse of a quick end to the war. However, for the first time since the conflict began, Washington is able to effectively escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil passed before February 28.
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On Tuesday, the U.S. military escorted 40 commercial vessels carrying 18 million barrels of oil through this bottleneck, according to an exclusive from CNN, which aligns with the official version of Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Before President Donald Trump ordered the start of the joint military campaign with Israel, about 20 million barrels of oil passed through the strait daily on average.
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The record maritime traffic during wartime does not mean, by any means, a return to normality. The U.S. used a combination of air, maritime, and space resources to carry out the operation, which focused on attacking Iran’s capabilities to threaten commercial vessels in the strait, as well as repelling waves of drone attacks. Specifically, on Tuesday it attacked about 60 military targets around the strait.
Additionally, according to officials who spoke to CNN, the Pentagon also neutralized a series of anti-ship cruise missiles during the escort operation. In parallel, the U.S. attacked civilian and military targets located in Hormuz on Sunday and throughout the week, such as the islands of Larak, Qeshm, and Sirik, as well as the southern Iranian port cities of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, among others. According to the U.S. Central Command (Centcom), these places are being used as bases for launching missiles toward the strait.
Trump considers naming the Strait of Hormuz after himself after celebrating that the U.S. “already has control” of this route
Following the success of the mission last week, Trump has grown bolder and, after weeks of saying that Washington “has control” of a cleared Strait of Hormuz, in recent days he has toyed with the idea of renaming it the “Trump Strait,” in an expansionist gesture similar to his namings of the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Ontario.
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However, the reality is that Tehran maintains its attack capability in the strait, despite its military arsenal being degraded, since the drones it is using are very low-cost and are being intercepted by costly Pentagon anti-aircraft missiles. This implies that, although the U.S. naval blockade is effective, it will be complex to sustain it over time without a diplomatic end to hostilities or an Iranian surrender.
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After six months, five and a half more than Trump initially said the war would last, the president has abandoned his declared objectives, such as regime change in Iran, elimination of its nuclear program, and defunding allied Islamist militias. The entire focus of the White House occupant has been on reopening Hormuz, which in itself represents a strategic defeat, since the strait allowed free passage of vessels before the conflict.
For the U.S. to openly celebrate a return to normality in the strait, it must calm the fears of shipping companies, which remain wary of passing through Hormuz. These companies are currently deciding, ship by ship, whether it is worth taking the risk, which has greatly reduced supply and driven up the cost of hiring a tanker to cross the strait to around $500,000 per day.
From the Oval Office, Trump celebrated on Wednesday that Tehran has less and less capacity to prevent and intercept U.S. attacks. “They were trying to see the ships,” he said from the Oval Office. “But they couldn’t see them, because they don’t have radars, we blew them up, and last night we destroyed much more than their radars.”
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