Benefiting from one of the typical electoral snowballs of politics in times of social networks and ideological polarization, the hard-right candidate, Abelardo de la Espriella, won the first round of the Colombian elections held on Sunday. Gustavo Petro, the incumbent president, has cast doubts on the result and assures that he will not accept it until it is officially confirmed by the judges overseeing the process.
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The billionaire Trump-supporting lawyer, who lives between Bogotá, Miami, and Florence, secured almost 44% of the vote, compared to 41% for the senator of the left-wing alliance Historic Pact, Iván Cepeda, who had led the polls and was confident even of winning in the first round.
With 10.3 million of the 23.7 million votes cast, De la Espriella, 47, a self-proclaimed outsider whose incendiary rhetoric and operetta iconography have dominated the campaign on social media, achieved a result much better than expected in the polls.
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Cepeda obtained 9.7 million votes in a first round that, despite having 13 candidates, turned into a two-horse race. All this, according to the usually reliable vote count that must be confirmed by the official scrutiny.
More than Cepeda’s weakness, De la Espriella’s success is due to the collapse of the center-right option of Paloma Valencia, the official candidate of former president Álvaro Uribe, who unsuccessfully tried to forge a center alternative with a more moderate discourse. Valencia, who became the favorite of the right after winning the primaries of the Uribista party Democratic Center earlier this year, received less than 7% of the votes.
In this sense, the elections have confirmed a general trend in Latin American politics: the strong polarization between the combative left and a rising far right that leaves little room for the center.
The elections confirm a trend of political polarization in Latin America
In elections of enormous significance inside and outside Colombia, the two candidates will face off in the second round on June 21 in a clear confrontation between two worldviews. On one side, Cepeda’s defense of equity and social justice. On the other, the Darwinian capitalism that De la Espriella defends in his attacks on the social programs of the current president, Gustavo Petro, which have reduced poverty in one of the most unequal countries in the world to historic lows.
A possible victory for De la Espriella would mark a new conquest for an extreme populist right that grows around figures like Donald Trump, Javier Milei, Nayib Bukele, and now De la Espriella.
De la Espriella is, in this sense, a derivative product, having copied elements from the ideology of each of these politicians, from his pantomime patriotism, promises to build a mega-prison for criminals in the Amazon jungle to an aspirational discourse aimed at young people in the new Uberized market.
“Like Noboa, De la Espriella does not hide his wealth,” said the Catalan consultant based in Bogotá Eva Ferrer Galcerán, who predicted De la Espriella’s victory in the first round but does not rule out a comeback by Cepeda in the second.
The likely transfer of Valencia’s vote to De la Espriella would bring the hard-right candidate closer to victory in the second round. After a campaign of insults, both Uribe and Valencia almost immediately announced their support for De la Espriella in the second round.
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Cepeda’s options are not so clear. Sergio Fajardo, the former mayor of Medellín, perennial centrist candidate, has shown his rejection of De la Espriella’s extremism, secured 4% of the vote, and his million voters could be reachable for the left if Cepeda distances himself from Petro’s more combative discourse.
De la Espriella has copied elements of the ideology of Trump and Milei
Although De la Espriella’s rise dominates the media headlines, Cepeda’s result is still extraordinary given the international context and the favorable cycle for the right in Latin America.
Historic Pact won in the capital Bogotá with 42% of the votes compared to 37.5% for De la Espriella. The Trump supporter prevailed, as expected, in Medellín. The electoral map resembles Petro’s 2022 victory, with the country’s periphery as well as Bogotá aligned with the left, and the central interior as De la Espriella’s right-wing territory. Voter turnout of 58% broke records and even more voters are expected in the second round.
Cepeda won in Bogotá and Barranquilla; De la Espriella prevailed in Medellín
Cepeda swept the strongholds of petrismo in the southwest of the country, where Cepeda’s vice-presidential candidate, indigenous leader Aida Quilcué, comes from. In Cali, the left-wing senator got 16 points more than De la Espriella
The key to the second round may be Barranquilla and the Atlantic coast, a stronghold of petrismo. Despite De la Espriella’s attempt to take the city of Barranquilla, Cepeda won by two points and swept the coastal region.
Although De la Espriella’s wave has momentum, many political scientists agree that he would be the candidate with the least chance of defeating the Petro left in the second round. That is why Valencia’s moderation campaign and her technocratic and gay vice president Daniel Oviedo were designed. The question now is whether Cepeda could attract the votes of those who, without identifying with the left, feel rejection towards the billionaire known as “The Tiger,” who has had clients linked to drug trafficking and organized crime.
But, like other populist right-wing candidates, De la Espriella has connected with a new working class that makes a living through platforms. “I will vote for De la Espriella because he is more coherent than Valencia,” said a young Uber driver with a ponytail and earrings, driving a Renault Duster he had just bought with a bank loan.
“The two candidates going to the second round are politicians of conviction, unlike Valencia, who lost credibility by disguising herself as moderate,” said a Historic Pact activist.
De la Espriella has U.S. citizenship and enjoys strong support among the ultra-conservative Colombian exile in Miami. Given his admiration for the Trump administration and Washington’s desire to avoid the repetition of a left-wing government, there is a high risk of U.S. interference in the electoral process, according to sources consulted in Bogotá.
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