The Andalusians have spoken and they have done so loud and clear, with a significant increase in turnout rising by almost nine points compared to four years ago. Starting from that data, the victory of the PP is clear, despite losing five seats. However, the most important thing is that…
Andalusia was the gateway for Vox into the institutions in 2018. Santiago Abascal’s party won 12 seats and was able to influence the Popular Party in its first contact with power in that community. It was the prelude to the far right’s breakthrough in the Congress of Deputies just a few months later. On this occasion, Spain’s most populous region puts the finishing touch on an electoral cycle designed by the PP, with an eye on the general elections – theoretically scheduled for next year – to wear down the PSOE and Pedro Sánchez’s government, from which the Populars, more dependent on Vox – a national priority – have come out worse off. They remain at the mercy of the ultranationalists; also in Andalusia, where since 2022 the firewall of Juanma Moreno Bonilla’s Andalusian path operated, who lost the absolute majority this Sunday.
“They are not good results for us,” María Jesús Montero admitted tonight, after personally congratulating Juanma Moreno Bonilla. “The citizens place us in the opposition,” the socialist candidate acknowledged, who showed no signs of giving up and expressed her commitment to “continue working for Andalusia.”
Juanma Moreno has managed to secure a comfortable victory again in the Andalusian regional elections, but he has lost the absolute majority he achieved in 2022. The acting president of the Junta de Andalucía and PP candidate for re-election has lost five seats, and these results force him to seek allies, either in Vox as in 2019 or in María Jesús Montero’s PSOE, which has recorded its worst result in history with 28 deputies.
Andalusia follows in the footsteps of Aragon. Electoral behavior follows some similar trends. And it should be remembered that Aragon is a community quite representative of the electorate in a general election, while Andalusia is the most populous. Let’s look at these trends:
Surprise at the start of the counting of the Andalusian regional elections. With 71% of the votes counted, the official data currently contradict the polls published at the close of the polls and do not confirm the absolute majority that the Sigma Dos and NC Report surveys clearly gave to the President of the Junta and PP candidate, Juanma Moreno Bonilla.
The current president of the Junta of Andalusia and candidate for re-election for the Popular Party, Juanma Moreno, would have managed to secure an absolute majority in the regional elections held this Sunday, according to polls conducted by Sigma Dos for Canal Sur and NC Report for La Razón, which give the socialist candidate, María Jesús Montero, the worst results for the PSOE in the community in its entire history. The polls thus depict a scenario of free hands for the Andalusian president, without the constraints of Vox, which shows clear signs of stagnation.
This election night is expected to be long and not only because in at least three polling stations the day was extended by a few minutes due to late setup. The main reason is that, if the polls and the campaign teams’ calculations are correct, the result will not be decisive until almost the last vote has been counted.
José Saramago begins his great novel, The Year of the Death of Ricardo Reis with the phrase “Here the sea ends and the land begins.” There are few places – except for the Cais do Sodré in Lisbon that he evoked – that can be so well described with these few words as Algeciras.