Beniamin Netanyahu’s great obsession for more than two decades hangs by a thread. Israel managed to convince Donald Trump to embark on a war against Iran, which it considers its greatest existential threat, and which could be closed with an agreement in a matter of days.
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But the move quickly failed: the ayatollahs’ regime, despite the death of most of its leaders, responded with fire over the Persian Gulf, managed to cut transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and drove up the price of oil worldwide.
Washington is now seeking a dignified way out of a conflict from which the Persians emerge with a strengthened negotiating capacity. The United States could ease the sanctions weighing on Iran in exchange for the dismantling or reduction of the Iranian nuclear program.
It is precisely the threat of an atomic bomb in the hands of the ayatollahs that is the main fear of the Israelis, who will not consider the offensive over until the regime changes completely. After a month and a half of Iranian missile attacks, much of Israeli society and the opposition to the government would see a premature agreement as a strategic setback.
Furthermore, Iran insists that the armistice must be applied on all fronts, including Lebanon, where Israeli troops remain deployed in active combat against Hizbullah. That condition could derail any pact if Tehran demands a complete cessation of Israeli operations in southern Lebanon. One of the Israeli officials involved in Netanyahu’s private talks stated that the prime minister expressed concern about the memorandum of understanding currently being negotiated.
The most hawkish wing of Netanyahu’s cabinet flatly rejects any call for peace with its northern neighbor. “The reality of explosive drones must not be normalized; the time has come for the prime minister to slam the table at Trump and announce that we are returning to war in Lebanon,” declared Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir on X. “We must cut electricity in Lebanon, conquer the Beqaa Valley, and return to intense war,” he added.
But Trump, “Israel’s best friend” in Netanyahu’s own words, no longer seems as receptive to Tel Aviv’s needs. According to The Times of Israel, the prime minister acknowledged to his close circle that his influence over the US president’s decisions has diminished in the final stretch of negotiations with the Persians.
Despite this, both leaders spoke again on Friday night and repeated contact on Saturday, after Trump held a joint call with leaders from the Gulf, Turkey, and Pakistan to discuss the status of negotiations with Tehran. After that last conversation, Netanyahu publicly broke his silence about the possible interim agreement.
In a statement, the Israeli prime minister explained that he had discussed with Trump the “memorandum of understanding” aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the planned talks to reach a definitive agreement on the Iranian nuclear program. The two allies agree that any final pact must involve dismantling Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities and removing enriched uranium from Iranian territory.
Trump, caught between political wear and tear and pressure from energy markets, seeks a quick way out that allows him to sell stability and move on. In Israel, however, the horizon is much more ambitious—and more dangerous. Netanyahu has been arguing for months that the war must serve to “redraw the Middle East,” a phrase that, in practice, implies keeping the various regional fronts open until the balance of power in the area is irreversibly changed.
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