Donald Trump started the Iran war convinced that the regime of the ayatollahs would fall in a few days. When it became clear that this would not be possible, the US president tried to sell another idea: the offensive had served to pave the way for a new Iranian leadership “less radical and much more reasonable,” with which agreements could be reached.
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But in reality, the opposite has happened.
The war – which will soon reach six months – has fostered the rise of the most intransigent sectors of the Islamic republic. Proof of this is the reorganization of the security leadership carried out last week in the name of the Iranian supreme leader, Mojtaba Jamenei, which grants great power to figures such as Mohsen Rezai and Hossein Taeb, veteran military supporters of the hard line.
Analysts believe that Iran has embraced an offensive doctrine and now wants to bet on confrontation with the US, as the regime thinks that in this way it can obtain greater concessions from its enemy. In fact, the Wall Street Journal claimed last Monday that Tehran has taken advantage of the extension of the (failed) ceasefire with Washington to rearm, with a view to an escalation of the conflict.
This possible intensification of hostilities was openly referred to today by the head of the Iranian General Staff, General Ali Abdollahi, who, through a message on the social network X, threatened retaliation against Gulf countries that provide military aid to the US. “They must know that nothing escapes our attention,” said this senior officer. “Any assistance provided to the aggressive US army will be considered participation alongside US forces,” he added.
Iran issued this warning a few hours after the United Arab Emirates announced the suspension of all commercial and financial transactions with the Persian country. A drastic measure adopted “in view of regional escalations that undermine peace and security,” according to a spokesperson for the Emirati Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
In recent days, the petromonarchy – which is an ally of both the US and Israel – has accused Tehran of attacking several of its tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and yesterday denounced that two alleged Iranian ballistic missiles had fallen into the sea after missing their target.
The newly announced blockade could deal a severe blow to Tehran, which in recent years has woven close economic ties with the Emirates that have allowed it to alleviate the effect of international sanctions. This punishment also threatens to add even more instability to the region at a time full of uncertainty. Last Monday the negotiation deadline established in the memorandum of understanding to reach a definitive peace agreement between the US and Iran expired, and the situation remains stuck on all fronts.
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The main obstacle is Hormuz. Tehran flatly refuses to return to the pre-war scenario: it insists that it has earned the right to continue controlling this strategic maritime route and its only concession is to share management with Oman. Faced with this immobility, Trump has threatened to bomb Oman – despite it being a faithful ally of Washington – and has declared the strait “new US territory.”
This disagreement lays the groundwork for the feared escalation. And if it finally occurs, the war could end up spreading to Europe. At least, that is what the Financial Times claims. According to two internal sources of the Iranian regime accessed by the newspaper, Tehran is considering the option of attacking US military assets located in southeastern Europe if Washington decides to intensify the conflict.
According to these sources, a possible target would be Bulgaria, which last month approved the use of the Bezmer airbase for refueling US planes. Tehran has been threatening Sofia with possible retaliation for weeks due to its collaboration with the US, but the Bulgarian government has tried to downplay the warnings. Another country that would be in Iran’s sights is Cyprus, which in March already saw a drone impact the British base at Akrotiri.
The truth is that the Iranian regime has ample capabilities to carry out its plans, as its arsenal includes ballistic missiles with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers – the distance between Iran and Bulgaria – as well as drones that can travel 4,000 kilometers – which would include Barcelona, London, or Paris.
Another question is whether Iran is willing to pay the price of an attack against Europe: NATO has already said it is prepared to respond. But analysts warn: the new regime is not afraid of risk.
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