Leonardo Padura (Havana, 1955) is very cautious. The writer refuses to venture predictions for Cuba or to answer whether he sees any middle ground between the current regime and a U.S. intervention that would lead to a protectorate or colony status for the island. “I have no idea what might happen,” says the recipient of the 2015 Prince of Asturias Award for Literature, visiting Paris to promote the French version of Going to Havana and for a colloquium at the Cervantes Institute. The author, tired of the media’s insistence for him to speak out, acknowledges that the Spanish transition could be an inspiring source, like many others, “but it depends on other decisions that are beyond my reach, not even able to outline.” “Speculating about any future is very risky; speculating about Cuba’s future is madness,” he apologizes.
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American pressure
Change in Cuba must come from within, not because they force it to change”
Do you think that, after so many years, a reconciliation between Cubans inside the country and those in exile would be possible in the near future?
I don’t know either (laughs). You’re asking me about things that could happen…
But you have said that Cuba is not Venezuela?
Obviously, they are two different countries, for many reasons, starting with the fact that Cuba had a real revolution that changed many things, while Venezuela had political and social transformations but not a true revolution, and that changes the contexts, of course. And the history of revolutionary Cuba is almost 70 years old.
You have warned of the danger of a humanitarian catastrophe. Are we already in it or is it a slow, silent catastrophe?
The situation in Cuba has been deteriorating. This is not new. Naturally, there has been a decline in living standards since the pandemic. Tourism and the economy have not recovered. Some changes have been made, such as the so-called “monetary ordering,” which ultimately caused price increases and therefore a decrease in purchasing power. Now other modifications have occurred, such as the possibility for Cubans living abroad to invest in Cuba, but the reality is that with this energy blockade the situation has become much more complicated. People are living with obvious shortages: the very high price of food, lack of electricity, water, and medicines. There is a notable deterioration in living conditions.
To the point that people can die from lack of care, transportation?
Yes, of course. With the country practically paralyzed, very complicated scenarios can arise, and the one you mention is one of these possibilities, that someone needs an operation and cannot have it due to certain conditions. A very visible problem is garbage collection. On every corner, you find a mountain of garbage, and that in a tropical country where summer is coming now, with rains, mosquitoes and different types of vectors breed. This can cause very unfortunate health consequences. Last year, Cuba had a real epidemic of these seasonal viruses like chikungunya, oropouche, zika, or dengue that affected a very notable percentage of the population. Some of these viruses leave sequelae that last months or years.
There has always been a gap between the official discourse and reality. Perhaps now it is greater than ever?
The official discourse tries to give logic to what is happening and fundamentally, of course, blames the U.S. blockade, but there are also many domestic responsibilities. There are a series of economic problems that have occurred and are occurring. For example, now they are trying to set up photovoltaic energy systems, solar panels, quite quickly. I think the scenario of what has happened now could have been foreseen earlier, and a change in the country’s energy matrix could have begun, because it is already known that Cuban thermal power plants are very old. While hotels for tourists who did not arrive were being built, that necessary change in the energy matrix was not made. Now we are paying the consequences.
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Do you think, therefore, that change has to come from within and not from foreign, military pressure?
I think that change must come from within because the problem is not that the Cuban government is being pressured, although it really is a force that influences any decision to be made. I do believe, and I have repeated it many times, that Cuba needs many changes, but not because it is forced to change but because Cubans need many things to change so that people’s living standards improve. Ultimately, a socialist society aspires to improve people’s lives. It is a purpose that cannot be forgotten and that deep changes must be made. I always say that band-aids have been put where deep surgeries should have been done, and that includes the social, political, and economic fabric, all of it.
Was Cuba’s rapprochement to the U.S. during Obama’s presidency a mirage?
Look, if you get on a time machine that gives you a margin of ten years and arrive in Cuba in 2016, you would have found a country where a Rolling Stones concert was taking place, with thousands of people attending, President Obama’s visit, a Chanel fashion show, the filming of an episode of the Fast & Furious series, Madonna, Rihanna, and the Kardashians in Havana. If you return to the present again, it seems like you have arrived in another world, a practically paralyzed city, dark, with almost no transportation, barely those electric tricycles that now move people from one place to another, and with evident deterioration conditions.
Anyway, Havana remains an excellent source of literary inspiration for you. Do you plan to stay in Cuba despite everything?
I made my decision a long time ago. At the most complicated moment of the 90s crisis, I went to the United States for the first time and everyone asked me if I was going to stay. It seemed logical. I said no, I wanted to return to Cuba. I want to be in Cuba because I want to write and live in Cuba. I have maintained that until now and hope to continue maintaining it. I know the situation is very complicated, but I am a writer, and writers need to have roots as firm as possible. Cuban reality is a fundamental element for my work as a writer and even as a journalist. Sometimes I say I would like to write about something else, but the situation in Cuba forces me. So here we are in this exercise that is living and a bit also, for many people, surviving.
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