Although it later turned out to be a mistake by the character, who confused one island with another, the Icelanders were startled when, in his speech in Davos last January, Donald Trump mentioned Iceland as a target of his expansionist appetites. The President of the United States meant to say Greenland, so the alarm passed quickly, but in any case his harassment of the neighboring Arctic island has struck a chord in Icelandic society and politics.
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Trump’s geopolitical swings raise doubts in Reykjavik about the security of this strategic North Atlantic island, European with a Nordic heart, which for decades has preferred not to be part of the European Union (EU).
Now, in the land of volcanoes, glaciers, and geysers, the EU option is gaining ground, although it is far from gathering broad majorities. The tripartite government of the social-democratic Prime Minister, Kristrún Frostadóttir, is promoting a referendum on August 29 on whether talks with Brussels should be resumed. The government calls for a yes vote, invoking that Iceland needs stability and security, while the no camp – made up of the entire opposition – warns of risks to fishing and agriculture, and digs in on national sovereignty.
The consultation is expected to be close. One hundred days before the vote, the campaign has started, and the 397,000 inhabitants of this island of 103,000 square kilometers – a size similar to Cuba – are divided. A poll by the newspaper Morgunbladid reveals a slim majority in favor of resuming negotiations (52% versus 48% against), and another by the economic weekly Vidskiptabladid , which specifically asked if Iceland should join the EU, shows 54% against and 46% in favor.
Contrast of arguments
Although the U.S. harassment of Greenland weighs, there is more concern about what would happen to fishing in case of joining the community club; meanwhile, the yes camp sees stability and security in the EU
“Membership in the EU has been a very controversial topic for decades; Icelanders are practically divided on it, and in many ways it has become a somewhat toxic issue, with a lot of distortion and misinformation circulating,” explains Eiríkur Bergmann, a political scientist at Bifröst University, in a conversation from the small town of the same name in western Iceland.
“Icelanders have felt very unsettled by the Greenland and Trump issue, and most detest his aggressiveness against our closest neighbor. There is some concern, but not anxiety. And it is a factor in the debate, especially because, for the first time, Iceland is beginning to discuss the EU in terms of security and defense, issues we had never before associated with the EU,” notes Bergmann, who directs the European Studies Center at Bifröst University.
In fact, the government – made up of social democrats, liberals, and a party linked to the rights of retirees and people with disabilities – in power since December 2024, proposed this referendum before the start of Trump’s second term. They wanted to hold it in 2027, but geopolitical tensions around Greenland and the Arctic have led to bringing it forward by a year.
“The Icelandic government is very cautious not to offend the President of the United States; given the situation, there are politicians who say we should get closer to Europe, but no one wants to insult the United States, and it is difficult to find the balance between both,” adds Grétar Thór Eythórsson, a political scientist at the University of Akureyri.
“Trump is very unstable, no one knows what he will do tomorrow or the day after, so people try to adapt to this insecurity,” says Eythórsson from his office in Akureyri, which with its 19,000 inhabitants is the second largest city in the country after Reykjavik.
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The background
Reykjavik already requested to join the community club in 2009, in the midst of the financial crisis, but after a change of government, in 2015 it abandoned negotiations with Brussels
Iceland is a founding member of NATO – the alliance was created in 1949 – but apart from a coast guard service, it lacks armed forces, as the United States assumes its defense under a bilateral agreement from 1951. Until 2006, the Americans maintained a presence at the Keflavík base. “Now, everything is in question, as the United States is increasingly seen as an unreliable partner and the validity of that defense guarantee is questioned,” points out Bergmann.
At the same time, with the Russian aggression against Ukraine and Trump’s disdain, the EU is internalizing the urgency of its own defense and security. “Alongside NATO, the European Union will be a kind of security architect in Europe, which raises the question of whether Iceland needs to join the EU to be part of that defense and security architecture – argues Bergmann –. But this is only beginning to enter the debate now; I would say Icelanders have not fully understood it yet.”
Reminder: Iceland applied to join the EU in 2009 due to the financial crisis. But in 2013, the new conservative government froze negotiations, which formally ended in 2015. In any case, Iceland’s relations with the EU have always been positive. Since 1994, Iceland has participated in the single market through the European Economic Area (EEA), and has been in the Schengen area since 2001.
A victory for yes in the August referendum would lead to resuming negotiations and, if these prove fruitful, a second referendum would be held to decide on membership yes or no.
The main obstacle, and yes supporters admit it reluctantly, is fish. “People are worried about whether Iceland would have to accept and fully follow the EU’s fishing policy; fishing and fish processing are a very important part of the national economy,” warns Grétar Thór Eythórsson. Cod and capelin represent nearly two-thirds of the catches.
Fully independent country since 1944
For the Icelandic yes camp, the EU represents stability and security; the no camp clings to the idea of national sovereignty, very present in Icelandic identity
“There are ideas about a specific solution for our fishing zones, such as creating a separate administrative zone within the EU for Icelandic fisheries that would remain under the control of our authorities,” adds Eiríkur Bergmann, the political scientist from Bifröst. “Without such a solution, the government will never sign the accession agreement nor submit it to a referendum, because it would be useless. Icelanders would never accept it.”
In the Althingi, the unicameral parliament of 63 seats, the fiercest rejection of EU membership comes from three opposition parties: the conservative Independence Party, the Center Party, and the Progressive Party. Aside from fishing, the no camp insists on safeguarding national sovereignty, painstakingly obtained after centuries of Norwegian or Danish colonization. Iceland achieved self-government in 1904, and fully gained independence from Denmark in 1944, during the peaceful occupation of the island by the Allies – first the British and then the Americans – while Denmark was invaded by Nazi Germany.
Because of that past, for many Icelanders the debate about the EU is also emotional. “We are an island, and island people tend to be more skeptical of foreigners, since historically they are not used to interacting with people from the other side of a border; in Iceland we are three hours by plane from the nearest European cities,” points out political scientist Eythórsson. “In the mentality of Icelanders, being a sovereign state is deeply rooted, because we have been an independent republic only since 1944; there is fear that the EU will swallow us up.”
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