Iran and the U.S. recognized this Saturday “encouraging progress” in their indirect negotiation to end the war. An extension of the sixty-day truce and a preliminary agreement would be within reach, according to Pakistani mediators, who see a second meeting in Islamabad between the contenders possible within a week.
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The last 24 hours have been crucial, as implied by the lightning visit to Tehran by Asim Munir, the head of the Pakistan Army who has a direct line to Donald Trump. The U.S. president himself would have given up attending the wedding party of his namesake son in the Bahamas.
His Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, acknowledged “progress” from New Delhi and hoped there would be “good news, this Saturday or Sunday or in a couple of days.” Shortly after, Trump himself said: “We are very close.” For once, Iran’s Foreign Ministry, instead of downplaying, said it observed “a convergence of positions,” in televised statements by its spokesperson, Esmail Baghai. “We are finalizing a protocol agreement with Washington to cease hostilities,” he said. Although he acknowledged that this could be delayed “three or four days” and that “we will not necessarily agree on important issues.”
Pakistan and Qatar have been closely involved for several days in this possible “preliminary agreement,” which would accompany the extension of the truce with a gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This should go hand in hand with an equally progressive unblocking of the billions of dollars of Iranian state assets confiscated since 1979. Likewise, the mediators would be trying to arrange a new face-to-face meeting in Islamabad, between Iran and the U.S., “after the Eid al-Adha holiday.” That is, starting next weekend.
It would be a step-by-step approach, in which the Iranian nuclear program would not be part of the discussions during the first thirty days, according to informed sources.
There could be good news this very Saturday, or Sunday or in a couple of days
Marco Rubio
U.S. Secretary of State, from New Delhi
Asim Munir, during his lightning trip, reportedly spoke a couple of times with U.S. Vice President JD Vance about the progress of his mediation. President Trump, for his part, spoke with Emir Al Thani of Qatar—whose Foreign Minister was in Tehran—and planned to speak throughout Saturday with the leaders of Turkey, Egypt, the Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, as well as Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Interior Minister, Mohsin Naqvi, has been in Iran for half a week. But all the spotlight has been on Marshal Munir, who upon landing in Tehran on Friday night, met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. This Saturday, finally, Asim Munir met with Iran’s President Masud Pezeshkian and the Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf—who was Vance’s interlocutor six weeks ago in Islamabad—before flying back to Rawalpindi.
Marco Rubio, who until now has played a secondary role in the catastrophic war unleashed against Iran, is not far off, as has been said. This very Saturday he landed in Calcutta—where he visited Mother Teresa’s work—before meeting in the afternoon in New Delhi with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Before that, Rubio had confirmed that Pakistan is his “main interlocutor” with Iran and that he was “in constant contact” with Asim Munir.
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Donald Trump insists that Iran cannot have, under any circumstances, the atomic bomb. Iran insists that this has never been its goal, while defending its right to enrich uranium. All options remain open, according to Trump, including military ones, despite Tehran’s response that, in case of new aggression, its response will be broader and more forceful, beyond the Middle East.
One of the signs that the conflict has entered a critical phase for its resolution is the succession of high-level visits to Beijing in just over a week. President Xi Jinping, who received Donald Trump last week and this week has received Russian Vladimir Putin, will soon host Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who landed in China this Saturday.
But many loose ends remain. Iran insists that the end of hostilities on all fronts includes Lebanon. While the U.S. does not accept that Iran imposes a toll on Hormuz as war reparations.
Likewise, the end of the conflict has unexpected apostles. The new Aga Khan, spiritual leader of millions of Ismaili Shia worldwide, met the day before yesterday with Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad. The Serena Hotel in the Pakistani capital, which hosted the face-to-face between JD Vance and Mohammad Ghalibaf, is part of the Aga Khan’s economic empire, who reportedly covered all expenses.
There is a growing feeling, in any case, that the war did not meet the objectives set by its promoters and that its resumption would only deepen the disaster, with unacceptable risks for world peace and the economy. Strictly speaking, not everyone has lost out. The major hydrocarbon exporters from Russia, the U.S., and other producing countries far from the Strait of Hormuz have seen their profits multiply in the last three months. But the price of gasoline has also risen 50% in Washington. Almost double that in Beijing.
It should be noted, finally, that Rubio’s trip to India is related to the meeting scheduled in the coming days in New Delhi between Quad ministers. That is, the working group on security in the Indo-Pacific formed by Japan, Australia, India, and the U.S., with China in the spotlight.
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