Singing the song of his own campaign has cost Moreno the absolute majority. If Zeus granted victory to the moderates, as Aeschylus warned, the Great Laurel – an absolute majority and two relative ones – has not managed to make the Andalusians grant him again the benefits of certainty, by choosing a Parliament that will not allow him to crown himself. Napoleon is not Andalusian. The PP will therefore have to pay the sacrificial medieval tithe to Vox. The voters, who on this occasion have voted in abundance, choose the mess. And they establish a counterbalance against the PP’s absolute dominance. Instead of giving oxygen to the PSOE, they reward the creative opposition of Adelante Andalucía, the candidacy of the green carriage Trotskyists, which manages to overtake IU (and what remains of Podemos) and precipitates a striking generational change – from Ancien Régime workerism to southern folkloric sovereigntism – between the two left-wing minorities. If both organizations had run together, they would now add up to nearly half of the socialists’ seats.
Read more The PP, chained to Vox
The president of the Junta will have to seek the support of the ultramontanes, either through abstention or a favorable vote. Vox’s success is discreet considering the mildness of its growth, but arithmetically relevant. Like Antonio, the character from The Merchant of Venice by Shakespeare, Moreno will be forced to guarantee the loan with a quarter of a pound of his flesh. Instead of the Jew Shylock, the lender in the deal will be Abascal. There will be a third coronation of the Great Laurel, but it will be very painful in political terms. Moreno has shipwrecked on the shore of the Quirinale. This will not prevent him from becoming the second longest-serving president of the Junta in history, still far from the Chaves era, but ahead of Escuredo, Borbolla, Griñán, and Her Peronísima (Díaz).
The ‘green carriage Trotskyism’ of Adelante Andalucía returns the PP to 2018
His new ermine cloak, however, is no consolation: after reaching its peak, its cycle begins the inevitable decline. The law of gravity is merciless. His bitter victory compromises his personal image, delays a hypothetical leap to Madrid, prevents Génova from selling its (anticipated) victory in a general election (without a date), and feeds the Moncloa roadmap. Sánchez will deny the evidence – Andalusia is clearly hostile to Sanchism – and will try to buy time, sacrificing the PSOE mayors and councilors, who in 2027 face municipal elections for which these regional ones are a calamitous omen.
Read more Moreno wins the elections but loses the absolute majority, the PSOE sinks even further
The collapse of Montero, who has dug the grave she inherited from Espadas, is indisputable. The left has mobilized, but in an unexpected direction: in favor of Adelante, which with eight deputies is the organization that best capitalizes on this May 17. Por Andalucía remains the red lantern and sours any state refoundation of Sumar. Plurinational Spain only exists among the left. They are all peripheral now.
Read more The Civil Guard renews the search for the two missing persons in the DANA every 15 days
