Andalusia follows in the footsteps of Aragon. Electoral behavior follows some similar trends. And it should be remembered that Aragon is a community quite representative of the electorate in a general election, while Andalusia is the most populous. Let’s look at these currents:
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The PP, which holds power, falls. The moderate profiles of the party, whether Jorge Azcón in Aragon or Juanma Moreno in Andalusia, are still strong, but less so. With their moderate style, they achieved excellent results a few years ago, but they are losing momentum. The reasons can be diverse: the wear of governing, disenchantment with management, or because the right-wing electorate demands more decisiveness on some issues. The fact is that Vox continues to bite. In times when absolute majorities are rare, it was absurd to set it as a goal. Especially since Moreno Bonilla has been president for more than seven years and has had to face thorny crises such as breast cancer screenings. But even Azcón, who had not reached three years in office when he called elections, was not spared from losing two seats. The Andalusian baron has suffered more and has fallen by five.
Vox bites, but not that much. In Aragon they doubled their result and went from 7 to 14 deputies, while in Andalusia they have only gained one seat, standing at 15. Santiago Abascal’s party, without having governed yet, shows some stagnation, but the momentum is still upward. The reasons can also be diverse: from internal noise, with expulsions of historic leaders and corruption accusations, to reluctance for months to enter regional governments, although this last factor was corrected by Vox in recent weeks. If Abascal made things difficult for María Guardiola in Extremadura for being one of the most centrist voices of the PP, we will have to see how they make Moreno Bonilla sweat. It is true that he only needs two votes from Vox, but Guardiola also fell four short of an absolute majority. Thus, Alberto Núñez Feijóo loses all hope of distancing himself from that insidious appendix that is Vox for the PP. There are no magic formulas, neither the Andalusian nor the Madrilenian. Either is “a mess” for Feijóo, in the words of Moreno Bonilla himself.
Another minister suffers a setback in her land, but maybe not because of “sanchismo”
The PSOE would do badly to console itself with that PP scenario. Andalusians continue to turn their backs on the party that was hegemonic in the entire south of Spain for more than 35 years. Without recovering in Andalusia, the PSOE does not have a very promising future. As happened in Aragon, another minister suffers a setback in her land. There is much speculation about whether the supposed “sanchista” contamination of the candidates weighs them down irreparably, but it is more likely that it is simply the party that is shattered in those territories. In Aragon, Pilar Alegría lost five deputies and now María Jesús Montero falls two more from the 30 she had, which were already a real disaster for the PSOE in Andalusia.
Voters punish those who are not working hard every day in their community, exercising opposition and building the party on the ground day by day. Salvador Illa also did not govern immediately upon returning to Catalonia from the Ministry of Health. He had to work for it until the next elections. Perhaps Sánchez’s mistake was not taking care of that until it was too late. But how is the party’s territorial structure going to work if it has lost its last two federal organization secretaries immersed in corruption cases? The trauma of the Andalusian PSOE is so great that it will require intensive care, from someone who is fully committed in the coming years. It may be that in the 2023 general elections Sánchez recovered half a million more votes than Juan Espadas in the regional elections a year earlier, but now he starts from lower.
Finally, to the left of the PSOE, even unity no longer works. Podemos and Sumar arrive late. Neither together nor separately. Sumar is punished by the government and Podemos by being out. Although maybe separated they would not have repeated the five seats they already had. Voters of that more radical left who will never vote for the socialists for considering them establishment seek refuge in closer options, such as Chunta Aragonesista or Adelante Andalucía, which appear as more irreverent forces, less constrained by having been in power and with a nationalist accent.
It is true that each community has its particular dynamics, but the string of elections this year provides a pattern that repeats itself, without meaning that the general election game is already decided by any means.
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