The Independent Fiscal Responsibility Authority (Airef) has revised upwards the growth forecasts for the Spanish economy for the coming years, from 2027 to 2030. The reason is immigration. Foreign workers are making a significant contribution to the improvement of GDP and will continue to do so in the coming years, assures the supervisor.
Airef talks about a “surprise” upon finding that during 2025, 584,000 people arrived in Spain, compared to the 399,000 expected. In a scenario of constant policies, that is, without major regulatory changes, immigrants will continue to come and contribute to improving the economy.
The body chaired by Inés Olóndriz estimates that in the coming years there will be a notable increase in the working-age population. Specifically, it expects that more than one million people will join the labor market by 2030. In this way, the active population that year will be 39.7 million people.
Airef’s contribution comes amid controversy over the fiscal impact of immigration on the Spanish economy. New citizens generate obligations, but also rights. The supervisor has not calculated the impact of immigration on pension spending, but scientific evidence from other countries points to it being a relevant factor at the fiscal level. Airef is working on a document about the impact of the extraordinary regularization that has just been approved, although today it has advanced that there is no evidence that it will generate a call effect.
The labor factor conditioned by migratory flows will therefore be decisive to maintain the growth of the Spanish economy, although Airef points to a slowdown in the arrival of foreigners in the coming years. Added to this is the low contribution of productivity to economic growth and the disappearance of some positive factors that have been in place in recent years, such as European funds. The scenario projected by Airef is a decelerated GDP growth that would reach 1.7% in 2030.
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In this context, Airef has revised down its GDP growth forecast to 2.2%, matching that of the Government. A few months ago it already lowered it by two tenths and now it lowers it again by one tenth. The reason: the worse performance of European partners, more exposed to the crisis.
The fiscal supervisor has also warned today that, even applying the escape clause linked to the increase in defense spending, Spain will have to undertake additional adjustments of 0.6% of GDP in 2027 and 0.3% in 2028 to keep the “control account” within margins and respect European commitments. Overall, this fiscal effort would amount to about 15 billion euros.
According to its calculations, net primary expenditure from revenue measures will advance, on average, around 5% annually between 2025 and 2028, clearly above the 3.4% committed to the European Commission.
In the macroeconomic field, Airef estimates that the Public Administrations deficit will rise in 2026 to 2.6% of GDP, as a consequence of the extension of certain temporary measures. Regarding debt, Airef estimates that the ratio to GDP will maintain a downward path in the medium term, with a decrease of just over five points in the next five years.
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