The Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, already clearly expressed the risk of a conflict between Europe and Russia in an interview given to La Vanguardia two years ago: “The threat of war is absolute and society is not fully aware.” Since then, Vladimir Putin has not ceased to intensify the so-called hybrid war on European territory, consisting of cyberattacks, airspace violations, drone attacks with explosives, or incursions of ships into the territorial waters of other countries. Just yesterday, Poland intercepted a Russian spy plane in Baltic waters. These skirmishes are becoming more frequent, as if Putin wanted to test how far European patience goes.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that the third world war has already begun and that Putin is attacking Europe because of it. In fact, Russia has failed in its attempt to invade Ukraine and sees its refineries and energy zones attacked with drones and explosives funded by European countries.
In this tense context, the recent visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow has sparked all kinds of speculation. It is no surprise. It has been reported that one of the reasons for his trip would be to prevent a Russian military attack against a NATO member. It would be moving from hybrid war to real war. Better not to draw parallels with the last trip made to Russia by a senior U.S. intelligence official, which was in 2021, just on the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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And to add more uncertainty to the situation, last week the Vatican’s foreign relations official, Monsignor Paul Richard Gallagher, also went to Moscow. His visit received less attention than Ratcliffe’s, but he met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Putin’s advisor Yuri Ushakov. Little is known about what was discussed in these meetings, but it is not unlikely that Putin was presented with the folly of starting a conflict with NATO. His failure in Ukraine cannot be covered up by opening another conflict, especially given the operational weakness Russia shows today. But Putin’s designs are inscrutable.
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