On February 11, Donald Trump definitively closed the trap on himself. That day, he received Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House and allowed himself to be convinced that it was the opportune moment to attack Iran and force the fall of the ayatollahs’ regime. The President of the United States, whose ego was overflowing after the successful military operation in Venezuela against Nicolás Maduro, was tempted by the idea of a new military feat and disregarded the reticence expressed by a good part of his own people. The trap, however, had begun to be set much earlier, in 2018, when in his first term Trump – pushed by Netanyahu himself – broke the 2015 nuclear agreement with Tehran. “The best victory is to win without fighting,” wrote the Chinese strategist Sun Tzu in the 5th century BC in his famous The Art of War. The U.S. deprived itself of this possibility eight years ago.
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The New York Times has revealed some details of the February 11 meeting and the debates Trump held in the following days with his closest collaborators: CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, questioned the viability of the plans presented by Israel, as did Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance, the most opposed to the war. Only the Secretary of Defense (opportunely renamed ‘of War’), Pete Hegseth, was in favor.
Trump is now forced to seek an agreement with Iran like the one he thoughtlessly broke in 2018
But all the reservations of some and others were disregarded by Trump, totally aligned with Netanyahu. The result is known: on February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched a campaign of massive bombings against Iran that has not achieved – despite propaganda to the contrary – any of its objectives (except that of assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a large part of the Iranian leadership)
“President Donald J. Trump set clear objectives in Operation Epic Fury and, in just 38 days, the greatest fighting force the world has ever known has met those objectives with overwhelming force and lethal precision. Iran has now accepted a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz while the Trump Administration negotiates a broader peace agreement, once again demonstrating the success of the ‘peace through strength’ policy.” On the 8th, the White House celebrated in this way, with a totally misplaced triumphalism, the precarious and fragile truce reached with Tehran.
The statement is fully in line with what one of Trump’s advisers in his first term, Kellyanne Conway, once dubbed “alternative facts.” Because the reality is that, seven weeks after hostilities began, Iran is weakened but not defeated, the Islamist regime is still standing – now in the hands of the most radical sectors, led by the Revolutionary Guard – the enriched uranium with which Tehran could one day resume its program to build the atomic bomb – more than 400 kilos – is still missing, and the consequences of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – which seems to be over, for now – are already harming the world economy, including that of the U.S. (with uncontrolled inflation seven months before the crucial mid-term elections)
The total destruction of Iranian military capability is also far from having occurred: according to U.S. intelligence sources cited by CNN, Iran would still have half of its missile launchers, as well as thousands of drones: “They are still largely in a position to cause absolute chaos throughout the region.”
The measure of Trump’s difficulties is given by the fact that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz – through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas exports are channeled – is still controlled by Iran, which only decided to reopen it on Friday, under its conditions and provided that the temporary ceasefire agreed between Israel and Lebanon is respected.
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The American president is now purging the original sin of having broken the nuclear agreement with Iran in May 2018, signed three years earlier by the U.S. – with Barack Obama as president – the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the EU, China, and Russia, by which Tehran accepted international control of its nuclear program. Even then, Trump allowed himself to be swayed by Netanyahu, who – contradicting reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), according to which Iran was complying with the agreement – claimed to have proof that the regime maintained a secret nuclear program. A week later, Trump unilaterally broke the agreement, calling it “horrible” and dismissing it as “the worst deal in history.”
In an article in Foreign Affairs, the former High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini, who participated in the 2015 agreement negotiations, stressed that the only way out of the crisis – today as yesterday – is again dialogue. “The pursuit of the diplomatic path with Iran was never a favor to Tehran,” she recalled. “It was an act of self-interest on the part of international actors who wanted to avoid the alternative. Their reasoning has been justified by this terrible war.” And she pointed out that now, to reach an agreement, the U.S. must abandon mere coercion and also offer “incentives” to the other party, in addition to establishing mechanisms to ensure that the pact will endure beyond political changes in Washington.
Given the limitations of the military option, Trump is now confronted with the challenge of trying to fix what he broke in 2018 and seeking a new agreement. It will not be easier than then. And it remains to be seen whether the result will be better than eight years ago.
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