The trip to Islamabad (Pakistan) by US Vice President J.D. Vance for his second round of dialogue with Iran has been suspended, though not canceled, as the two-week ceasefire between the two warring countries is about to expire. President Donald Trump lied on Monday when announcing that Vance was already flying and would arrive in the early hours. The White House later said that the expectation was for him to take off this morning, but he remains in Washington and, according to US media reports, will stay in the capital until Trump sees honest negotiating will from Tehran.
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The lack of agreement suggests that, unless another plot twist occurs – something not dismissible given the precedents in this conflict – the US and Iran will resume hostilities when the ceasefire concludes. However, it is also unclear when that will happen. Trump announced the 14-day truce on April 7, so it was supposed to expire this Tuesday, but on Monday he said it would conclude “Wednesday night,” early this morning Spanish time. Pakistan, a country actively mediating for peace, has said it ends at 3:30 AM Iran time, 2 AM Wednesday morning in Spain.
Tehran states it cannot negotiate given the “contradictory messages, inconsistent behavior, and unacceptable actions” from the US.
The maximalist red lines of both sides have, for now, made the second round of negotiations impossible. The US sent a written proposal to the Iranians stating that it will only accept the surrender of Tehran’s enriched uranium reserves and the suspension of its nuclear program, as Trump has repeatedly stated. This is unacceptable for Iran, which in turn demands an end to the US naval blockade of its ports as a condition for resuming negotiations. The US Central Command reported yesterday that it has already turned back 27 vessels entering or leaving Iran.
The spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmail Baghaei, said this morning that the regime has not yet decided whether it will attend the dialogue table in Pakistan. He noted that negotiation is not possible given the “contradictory messages, inconsistent behavior, and unacceptable actions on the part of the American side,” according to Iranian state television IRIB. In parallel, Tehran has warned that it is prepared to “reveal new cards on the battlefield.”
Given the uncertainty about the future of the war, Trump has resumed his threatening tone. When the ceasefire expires, “we are going to bomb, because I think it’s the best attitude,” he said this morning in an interview with CNBC, after warning yesterday that his targets would be Iranian energy infrastructure and bridges, something that suggests the commission of war crimes. “We are ready to act. The army is eager to do it,” he insisted. Asked if he plans to extend the ceasefire if there is no agreement, he already ruled out that possibility yesterday: “I don’t want to do that. We don’t have that much time.”
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However, in parallel, Trump has shown optimism that the US can achieve a “great deal” with Iran. “I think they have no other choice. We have destroyed their navy, we have destroyed their air force, we have destroyed their leaders,” Trump declared. Using the same argument, last week he repeatedly said that Tehran, where he claims there has been a “regime change,” had “accepted all US conditions,” including the surrender of its enriched uranium. He provided no proof of this, and in fact, Iran’s rejection of negotiations suggests the opposite.
The US continues to struggle to find a viable exit strategy that would allow it to sell a real victory to an American public tired of this unpopular war, which has now entered its eighth week. Trump initially promised that the large-scale military aggression, the largest for the US in two decades, was an “excursion” that would end in “four or five weeks.” Two weeks ago, he gave a speech to the nation asking for more time, and stated that in the following two weeks he would bomb “hard” until his objectives were met. But peace still seems just as distant now.
Iran has not confirmed its attendance at the Islamabad meeting at any point. But it also did not do so in the days and hours leading up to the first round of dialogue on April 11, although it eventually did send its delegation, which left the Pakistani capital after 21 hours of fruitless negotiation. As on that occasion, the US delegation, if the meeting takes place, will be led by Vance, one of the Administration members who most championed the pacifist discourse before the war, but who has aligned himself with Trump throughout the conflict. The president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and his close friend and special envoy to conflicts in which he intervenes, Steve Witkoff, are also expected to attend Islamabad.
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