The Andalusians have spoken and they have done so loud and clear, with a significant increase in turnout rising by almost nine points compared to four years ago. Starting from that data, the victory of the PP is clear, despite losing five seats. However, the most important thing is that it loses the absolute majority by two deputies and returns to the hands of Vox. With 53 seats, five fewer than in 2022, it is two short of the figure that every president longs for to be able to govern without unbearable conditions that end up being accepted.
Read more Vox blurs Moreno Bonilla’s firewall and takes the absolute majority from the PP in Andalusia
But if the results are not good for the PP, despite many wanting to achieve that vote percentage of more than 41% obtained by the popular candidate, those of the PSOE are worse. If the socialists are content with Juanma Moreno losing the absolute majority and depending on Vox, it is completely insufficient, because it only serves them as an argument to build future electoral slogans with which Pedro Sánchez can reinforce his discourse when the general elections arrive. The result for the socialists is bad.
Will the reflection that the PSOE delays come now, or will they wait for the final defeat?
The bet of the Prime Minister on his number two in the Government and in the PSOE, María Jesús Montero, has failed again, and she should not be satisfied with a loss of two seats. Four years ago, the socialists obtained the lowest number of deputies in the Andalusian Parliament in their history, 30 and 22.81%. That result caused the ousting of the then candidate, Juan Espadas. The PSOE deputy secretary general has broken that floor and has sunk further.
Will the reflection that the socialists have been delaying come now, or will they wait for the final defeat? In theory, there is one year left until the general elections. There is time, but the former vice president of the Government, who has not yet resigned her seat in Congress, will have to decide what to do.
However, there is no doubt that the PP and Juanma Moreno have also not achieved their goals. The acting Andalusian president had set three objectives: Win the elections, do so in the eight provinces, and have “a majority of stability,” a euphemism he has used to avoid saying absolute majority. He has achieved the first two goals, but not the main one, which was not to depend on the far right.
Read more Code red
And that will be the punishment for Juanma Moreno, considered the moderate leader among the PP barons, and for Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who will have to review his strategy. His more or less firm rejection of “the national priority” imposed by Vox, and his undisguised allergy to negotiating and governing with Abascal’s group, will take its toll. There is nothing worse than having to make a pact with those who have felt ignored and despised. Will Moreno swallow that toad? And what will Feijóo do, thinking about the general elections? Now he more or less knows what he is facing, and what they will demand of him if he does not get a broad result.
Vox can boast. Not much though. It has gained one seat and the percentage increase does not reach half a point. Far from what Abascal desires, which is to surpass the PP. Its greatest triumph is having become the second party in the province of Huelva, surpassing the PSOE. The overtaking has occurred, but over the socialists.
The ones who do succeed are the parties to the left of the PSOE, especially Adelante Andalucía, the anti-capitalists and Andalusian nationalists who gain six seats and benefit from the turnout. For Andalucía, the coalition that grouped around the IU leader, Antonio Maillo, uniting Sumar and Podemos after several regional elections in which they went separately, remains the same.
Read more Sánchez takes the bitterest defeat as Montero breaks through the PSOE floor
