The economy of promises: SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, tech giants valued at three trillion dollars, are gearing up to go public, although none of the three are currently making money. It is an unprecedented combination in the history of the United States, which is awaiting the largest stock market listing in history of three innovative companies, but largely still unprofitable.
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Value is attributed to expectations, at a time when the global economy is going through turbulent times with the war in the Persian Gulf.
Soon the so-called Magnificent Seven could become ten, and Wall Street would further accentuate its dominance over the rest, as it could concentrate almost half of the global corporate capitalization. “Once we get past that stage of excitement where everyone wants to join in, it will be really critical for these companies to show exactly what their profits are,” said Anthony Saglimbene, head of market strategy at Ameriprise, to Reuters.
To begin with, it must be said that it would not be the first time. Making profits is not a necessary condition to go public (it is for being part of some indices, such as the SP500, for example). There have been numerous cases. Not far off, those who have a few years behind them must remember Terra, Telefónica’s portal that in the midst of the dot-com bubble promised to be the gateway to the internet and ended up later even off the stock exchange.
In Europe, the most striking case was Spotify. The streaming giant went public in 2018 and recorded net losses for six years, until 2024 (by the way, the shares have appreciated almost 200% since their debut).
Anthropic and OpenAI have never made money, while SpaceX is now running annual losses
Back in the United States, the mobility app Uber burned cash for four years between 2019 and 2023, until its business was redefined. While the leader in tourist rentals Airbnb only had to endure two years from its stock market debut to become profitable, with the pandemic in between. As for the electric van company Rivian, one of the ten largest market debuts in history, it has yet to record net profits since then (2021). This situation, as can be seen, is common especially among tech companies, which at the start are very capital-hungry to launch the business. And they prefer to prioritize increasing their customer base over profitability.
The three companies that have announced their upcoming debut this year have decided to go to the market for several reasons. “Many of them have already managed to raise all the money possible through funding rounds and capital injections. When this route runs out, then only the market remains. They decide to go public when they reach a valuation that allows them to raise the financing they need,” explains Xavier Brun, equity director at Trea AM and professor at UPF-BSM.
“Behind their decision is the winner takes it all strategy, of the winner who takes everything. What they are selling is the possibility that they manage to operate in their sector under almost monopoly conditions, which would give them a big advantage over the rest,” explains this manager. In what sense? SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, is the most expensive of the three: it has a valuation of 1.75 trillion dollars, which exceeds Spain’s GDP. The company recorded economic losses of 5 billion last year (although it is true that in previous years it did achieve an operating profit and showed some ability to generate cash flow).
To the market, the South African magnate sells an exclusive mobile satellite business (Starlink) with wide coverage, low maintenance, and that can capture a significant market share of the satellite business. For Ashwath Damodaran, Finance professor at New York University, “SpaceX is being valued as if it had conquered Mars and monopolized deep space.”
From Terra to Uber, Airbnb, or Spotify, other tech companies have gone public in the red
As for OpenAI, a company whose price would be around a trillion dollars, and its smaller rival Anthropic (380 billion), we are facing a decisive battle to see who will take the lead in AI, although neither has ever made money. If Sam Altman’s firm was the first for mass use, Dario Amodei’s boasts of focusing on high value-added corporate applications (which would allow profits to be achieved more quickly).
From the model’s point of view, the key is which of the two firms will secure loyalty. That is, the one that manages data so that it is harder for the user to leave one in favor of the other. Provided that, in addition to financial unknowns, uncertainties about regulation, competition, energy cost, sustainability, and data center availability are overcome. Gary Marcus, AI expert and sector critic, warns: “OpenAI needs to raise billions just to keep the lights on. A stock market debut under these conditions is not an expansion, it is a bailout by retail investors.”
In the end, it will be necessary to see who will be willing on the stock market to buy a business story before its execution. There is also pressure from private investors – venture capital – who have financed these companies over the years and who are eager to sell their stakes to those who go public, before AI enthusiasm cools down.
So the question currently on investors’ minds is this: will the three sisters about to enter the stock market be able one day to do the same as the seven big tech companies that now generate profits with double-digit growth?
