For almost 40 years Andalusia was considered a socialist stronghold. It seemed like an enormous impregnable fortress. The socialists managed to blend in with the landscape in a prodigious way by identifying their brand with the construction of autonomy and the strengthening of an Andalusian identity in the early 80s. The so-called “captive vote” did the rest: for a long time the PSOE was skillful in attributing to itself the granting of agricultural aid and the implementation of public services. All this gave it an unassailable political stability. Now it is one of the few autonomous communities where the PP governs with an absolute majority, at a time when that achievement is a rarity. Has Andalusia turned to the right?
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The PP began to enter that community during the time of José María Aznar, first winning some provincial capital mayoralties. The Popular Party entered boosted by a rather urban vote. As the weight of medium-sized cities and the service sector (the case of Málaga is paradigmatic) has gained weight, this trend has intensified. Then came the crisis of the two-party system and Ciudadanos achieved a not insignificant implantation in Andalusian territory. The shift towards a moderate right became a reality and the wear and tear of so many years of PSOE government along with corruption cases, especially the ERE case, as well as the economic slowdown, ended up tipping the balance in 2018, when Susana Díaz was ousted from the San Telmo Palace.
Moreno Bonilla’s team takes the moderate ways of Illa as a reference
It was not Díaz, nor her predecessors, José Antonio Griñán or Manuel Chaves, characters who tended towards a very left-leaning PSOE. On the contrary. All these signs led the PP candidate, Juanma Moreno Bonilla, to work on a moderate profile, avoiding tension and bitter clashes. Nowadays, Moreno’s team usually looks at the speeches and moves of the current leader of the PSC, Salvador Illa, who has also forged a political temperament that avoids stridency and noise. The Andalusian leader’s bet has been a success.
It is something like an Andalusian centrism that is nothing more than a continuation of what the PSOE practiced in that community and that attracts a vote that, above all, seeks stability and reasonably correct management. Andalusian presidents avoid conflicts that are too heated with the central government. That does not mean that they do not claim “historical debts” in financing or other demands when the political acronyms of the Andalusian and central governments do not coincide, but a constant clash and permanent presence in Spanish politics is not sought. Moreno Bonilla’s conciliatory attitude with the central government following the Adamuz railway accident is very revealing in this regard. The Andalusian voter seems to prefer mostly less doses of ideological doctrine. Although it is likely that they lean towards the discourse of lowering taxes, they also emphatically defend public health and education.
Having known how to capture that sociological idiosyncrasy has been an indisputable merit of the current tenant of the Junta, just as adopting a completely opposite profile is the reason for Isabel Díaz Ayuso’s success in Madrid. There was a time when the PP boasted of saying the same thing anywhere in Spain, but in the end it has adapted like a glove to territorial diversity, except in two cases, the Basque and Catalan, where it still has not found a key that guarantees a hegemonic aspiration.
The electoral calendar wanted Andalusia to be the first community to experience Vox’s entry into a relevant institution, its autonomous parliament. Despite the rise of Santiago Abascal’s party, Moreno Bonilla maintains options to renew the absolute majority, although he suffers slight wear, probably influenced by episodes such as the serious crisis of breast cancer screenings. Even so, polls give the popular candidate more than 40% of the votes and comfortable approval in leadership ratings. The PP needs it to be in Andalusia where Vox’s upward cycle ends. In Castilla y León that party grew to nearly 20%, although not as much as in other territories because there they already started from a very high base. Following that result, the PP has supported the thesis that Vox has reached its ceiling.
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Vox aims to make Moreno go through the same ordeal as Guardiola in Extremadura and snatch away his centrist pedigree
In other words, Moreno Bonilla losing the absolute majority this May 17 is a big catch for Abascal, which would make him go through the same ordeal as María Guardiola in Extremadura to snatch some shreds of centrist pedigree, the kryptonite that gives him his superpowers. The national leadership of the PP does not want to raise too many expectations about the electoral result, but trusts that the Andalusian president will not need Vox to govern. If Moreno Bonilla renews his absolute majority it would be great news for Alberto Núñez Feijóo for various reasons that go beyond Andalusia.
Not only would the popular vote bank be consolidated for the general elections (Andalusia has almost seven million voters), but it would also be proven that Vox can be beaten from moderate positions, without having to tilt the ideology or the ways towards the far right. The cherry on the cake for Feijóo would be a PSOE entrenched in the most populous community and none other than the party’s number two and Pedro Sánchez’s right hand as candidate for the Junta. An unbeatable framework for the upcoming electoral battles, whether general or municipal. Because the PP remains convinced that Sánchez will have to bring forward the elections due to the pressure of ongoing judicial cases.
The entry of the recently former vice president and finance minister into the Andalusian battle has mobilized the loyal PSOE vote, but Montero finds it hard to enter that center range that can lean towards either of the two main parties or stay home. According to polls, the PSOE retains about three out of four voters from 2022, but at the same time has a high number of undecided voters. Even if Montero manages to improve socialist results, she would do so over the worst in its history, light years behind the PP. For Feijóo, presenting the most devoted of the Sanchist leaders as a failure will be an irresistible temptation.
To the left of the PSOE a precarious alliance has been formed between the pole around IU and Sumar on one side, and Podemos on the other. The coalition, called Por Andalucía and led by Antonio Maíllo, competes in that space with Adelante Andalucía, the left-wing nationalist party founded by Teresa Rodríguez and which follows the trail of the BNG in Galicia, Bildu in Euskadi or ERC in Catalonia. Polls indicate that their current two deputies could become six. Something similar to what happened in Aragón with the resurgence of the Chunta Aragonesista (CHA), which went from three to six. In the absence of a clear, compact and inspiring reference to the left of the PSOE, a refuge vote of that electorate towards forces rooted in their territory is taking place. But that phenomenon is happening on the left. In the center-right it did not work that way in Aragón, where the PAR has disappeared in the last elections. Junts also suffers a decline in the polls and the PNV seems stabilized, although it suffers pressure from Bildu.
Andalusia and Catalonia. Feijóo could guarantee the Andalusian vote bank, with a census of 6.8 million voters, as well as extensive territorial power, while Sánchez practically only has one important stronghold left: Catalonia, with 5.7 million voters. This semester of chained regional elections will have concluded and we will enter the long campaign towards the general elections.
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