Andalusia follows in the footsteps of Aragon. Let us remember that Aragon is quite representative of the electorate in the general elections, and Andalusia is the most populous.
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The governing PP falls. The moderate profiles of the party, whether Jorge Azcón in Aragon or Juanma Moreno in Andalusia, who achieved excellent results a few years ago with a moderate style, are losing momentum. The reasons may be diverse: the wear and tear of management (greater in Moreno’s case, with seven years in government and the breast cancer crisis) or that the right-wing electorate demands more decisiveness.
How could the PSOE not accuse having had to dismiss its last two secretaries of organization?
Vox continues to bite, but not as much. In Aragon they doubled their result and in Andalusia they have gained one seat. Santiago Abascal’s party, without yet governing, shows some stagnation, but the momentum remains upward. The reasons can also be diverse: from internal noise, with expulsions and corruption accusations, to having been reluctant to enter regional governments until recently. If Abascal made things difficult for María Guardiola in Extremadura for being one of the most centrist voices of the PP, we will have to see how they make Moreno Bonilla sweat. Thus Alberto Núñez Feijóo loses all hope of distancing himself from that insidious appendage that Vox is for the PP. There are no magic formulas, neither the Andalusian nor the Madrilenian. Either one is “a mess” for Feijóo, as Moreno would say.
The PSOE would do wrong to console itself with that PP scenario. Andalusians continue to turn their backs on the party that was hegemonic throughout the south for more than 35 years. Without recovering in Andalusia, the PSOE has no future. As happened in Aragon, another minister suffers a setback in her land. There is speculation about the Sanchist contamination of the candidates, but it is more likely that it is simply the party that is shattered in those territories. How could it not be if it has lost two federal secretaries of organization due to corruption?
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Voters punish those who are not working hard every day in their community, exercising opposition and building the party on the ground. Salvador Illa did not govern immediately after leaving the Ministry either. He had to work for it until the next elections. Perhaps Sánchez’s mistake was not taking care of all that beforehand.
To the left of the PSOE, even unity no longer works. Podemos and Sumar arrive late. Neither together nor separately. Sumar is punished by the government, and Podemos by being out. Although maybe separated it would have been worse. The voters of that left that will never vote for the socialists seek refuge in Chunta Aragonesista or Adelante Andalucía, which appear closer and more irreverent.
Each community has its particular dynamics, but this string of elections this year outlines a trend, without this meaning that the general election game is decided.
