24 hours before the ceasefire agreed by Iran and the United States ends, the conflict is a real Dragon Khan because expectations are constantly changing. As of writing this article, there is more hope today than there was yesterday that the truce can be extended for longer, and it also seems that both countries will resume dialogue in Islamabad. The Pakistani mediators, who are making merits for the Nobel Peace Prize, even if their regime is not a paragon of democracy, have a very complex mission because no one wants to appear as the loser of this war.
Read more Iran and the U.S. reluctantly meet
We are facing the battle of the narrative. Donald Trump has already realized that it will be very difficult to overthrow the Iranian Republican Guard with bombings alone, and that attempting it through a ground invasion carries a risk to human lives that he cannot afford and that would not be acceptable to American society. The goal is to find a formula in which Trump can appear as the winner of the conflict, even if he is far from being one. The Iranians, for their part, know that their best victory is to resist and that they are about to achieve it if the United States ceases fighting. The third country in contention, Israel, would want to continue the war because it has seen a unique opportunity to impose itself on its worst enemy. Benjamin Netanyahu will emerge strengthened from this conflict, and the border security line that Israel needs to stop its enemies will be much wider after the bombings in Lebanon. A very different matter is the image of the Israeli government in the world, which has become increasingly negative since the invasion of Gaza.
Read more Apple names John Ternus as chief executive and Tim Cook, executive chairman
The variability of the conflict influences the markets, which are becoming more dizzy every day. Oil and gas prices, which had fallen on Friday with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, rose again yesterday when it was learned that the US army seized an Iranian ship in this area. All of this leads to an increase in gasoline prices, which is beginning to be felt in the pockets of American voters, who have the midterm elections seven months away. This is another argument for Trump to end this war once and for all.
Read more The new trains for Madrid’s Cercanías will arrive before Catalonia’s
