The U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Political Affairs, Elbridge Colby, was blunt last week: “America is not disengaging from Asia. We are not leaving; in fact, we are digging in.”
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But the words of this senior Pentagon official, spoken during a visit to the Philippines, contrast with reality: today the U.S. presence in Asia is in question. And much of the blame lies with the Iran war.
The Middle East conflict is monopolizing Washington’s attention and military resources, leaving other theoretically priority theaters, such as the Pacific, unattended.
The most symbolic proof of this is the withdrawal of the last U.S. aircraft carrier in Asian waters, the USS George Washington. This warship, capable of carrying 6,000 people and 90 fighters, left its base in Japan days ago to head to the Arabian Sea. There it will replace the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is in a critical situation after more than 260 days deployed: its crew complains about the lack of food and undignified living conditions.
The absence of U.S. aircraft carriers in the Pacific will likely be temporary, and the Pentagon still maintains substantial forces in the region – including submarines, destroyers, and amphibious ships – but the episode has sown concern among Washington’s Asian allies, who fear China might try to take advantage of the situation.
Not surprisingly, this summer Beijing has been involved in various moments of tension with its neighbors. Last week, it conducted naval exercises with Indonesia east of Taiwan. Earlier this month, it carried out military maneuvers near the Scarborough Shoal, whose sovereignty is disputed with the Philippines. At the end of July, during joint exercises with Russia, a Chinese destroyer fired live rounds off the Japanese island of Okinotori. And a few weeks earlier, a submarine launched a long-range ballistic missile in the South Pacific.
This continuous display of military muscle is alarming in itself, but it is even more worrying considering that the U.S. today does not seem to be in the best position to provide sufficient help to its allies in case of an escalation.
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The main problem is that the Iran war has devastated the Pentagon’s anti-aircraft ammunition reserves. According to military sources consulted by CNN and Reuters, the U.S. has already consumed 80% of its THAAD missiles and 65% of its Patriot missiles. Likewise, the U.S. military has used practically all of its long-range and high-precision projectiles.
Faced with this hemorrhage, the Department of Defense is pressuring the arms industry to advance deliveries and speed up production. However, analysts believe this shortage will be very difficult to resolve in the short term: fully replenishing the reserves of the most sophisticated munitions, such as the Patriots, could take years.
All this threatens to undermine one of the main premises of U.S. military doctrine: the ability to simultaneously wage two large-scale wars.
If, for example, China now decided to invade Taiwan, Washington would have serious difficulties providing an effective military response. It would first have to disengage from the Middle East to redirect its resources to the Pacific, and perhaps not even then: if it has not been able to overcome a medium power like Iran, how will it face a superpower like China, which has the most advanced weaponry?
In fact, no one doubts that Beijing has taken good note of the weaknesses the U.S. has shown in its campaign against Tehran, such as its lack of flexibility against drone attacks, weapons that, precisely, China mass-produces.
And beyond these strictly military issues, there is also the erratic foreign policy of the current White House. If fifteen years ago Barack Obama proclaimed the U.S. “pivot to Asia” to contain China’s advance, now Donald Trump seems to seek understanding with Beijing. An approach that could involve dividing spheres of influence: for China, the Pacific; for the U.S., the Western Hemisphere.
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