The relentless succession of information about alleged corruption around the PSOE is already having an effect on Pedro Sánchez’s parliamentary allies. Nerves are beginning to show in some, although for now there are no signs of a possible change of side.
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Yesterday, confusion spread in Sumar. No one expected Judge Pedraz, who is not considered by the left to have conservative political affinities, to order the Civil Guard to enter the PSOE headquarters to look for evidence of whether the party paid figures like former member Leire Díez to stop police and judicial investigations into the socialists.
However, the most delicate flank is undoubtedly that of the PNV. After the indictment of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, the Basque nationalists conveyed to the Government their intention to mark certain distances to minimize collateral damage. Hence, their top leader, Aitor Esteban, made statements in which he considered it “irresponsible” for Sánchez to continue the legislature “beyond 2026.” In response to interpretations about an imminent break, Esteban himself came out hours later to make it clear that his intention is not to support a no-confidence motion by the PP. For its part, Junts has also not subscribed to such an operation. Miriam Nogueras has been very critical of Sánchez but has limited herself to recalling that they already requested a vote of confidence a year ago. The truth is that neither side is in a position to make that leap.
In the contacts that Junts and PNV leaders have periodically, the possibility of a no-confidence vote has not been seriously discussed, not even an instrumental one, that is, not to directly vote for Alberto Núñez Feijóo as president of the Government, but to call general elections. In fact, it may seem like a simple idea to convince the nationalists, but putting it into reality is complex. For the motion to succeed, a candidate for president would have to be voted on, even if with the commitment to remain provisionally the minimum time to call elections. It would be unlikely that the PP would allow anyone other than its leader to be voted on by Congress as president. Not only because it would be a step back for Feijóo that would only weaken his leadership, but also because, even if briefly in that position, we are talking about a few months with an interim president when anything could happen given the unstable domestic and even more so international situation.
The current PP leadership has generated antibodies in the PNV that are difficult to reverse
Moreover, even if the PNV and Junts accepted Feijóo as president with the written commitment to immediately call elections and these took place on the agreed date, no one guarantees that the result would allow a government to be formed quickly. It is enough to remember the almost 11 months Mariano Rajoy spent as acting president while negotiations took place and deadlines were met for a repeat election. Both the PNV and Junts are aware that this path could cause them more problems than benefits. For both parties, supporting Sánchez means wear and tear, but voting for Feijóo as president, even more so.
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The current PP leadership has also generated antibodies among the Basque nationalists and relations are not good. The entry of Vox into the equation does not help facilitate collaboration with the PNV, although in the Basque Country the far right worries the Esteban party less than Junts. For Carles Puigdemont’s group, somehow facilitating Vox’s arrival to the Government would be very difficult to explain in Catalonia. At the same time, the PNV governs in practically all institutions, from the Basque Government, through the three provincial councils and the city councils of Bilbao and San Sebastián. It is a broad-spectrum agreement that has so far been working without major conflicts. Bildu is lurking and the socialists may threaten to change alliances, although it is also true that for a sector of PSE voters a pact with the abertzale left would still be a trauma.
Therefore, it does not seem convenient for the PNV to break with Sánchez, although that does not prevent concern from spreading about the wear and tear involved in staying together with Sánchez at this moment, even if bilateral agreements on transfers or investments bear fruit, since they are overshadowed by the noise about corruption. The judicial calendar for the PSOE is a ordeal: trial of the president’s brother, possible trial of his wife, the Zapatero case, those of Ábalos-Koldo-Cerdán and the case about the clumsy maneuvers of Leire Díez to sabotage investigations. The Government’s allies have set a red line that some indication of irregular financing must not arise, something that has not happened so far, although there is an open case under secrecy of proceedings on this matter. The issue is that so many fronts make it very difficult to discern the scope of each action, how far conjectures go and how far evidence goes, since most cases are under investigation and every step ordered by a judge becomes news.
Junts has long maintained distance from the Government, but its priority is to finally get the amnesty applied so that Carles Puigdemont can return. The Constitutional Court awaits the ruling of the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) on whether certain cases of embezzlement like the one affecting the leaders of the procés can be included in that law. That ruling is expected in July, although it would not be the first time those expectations are frustrated and a new delay occurs. It is not that the Government expects a change of attitude from Junts towards its legislative agenda if Puigdemont can return soon, but it is also true that that party finds it difficult to justify a vote for Feijóo in a no-confidence motion in Catalonia because of this PP’s positions on issues such as language or the amnesty law itself.
The PP knows all this, but still insists on pressuring Sánchez’s allies, whom it presents as accomplices of corruption. It is not that it trusts to convince them, but it hopes to take advantage of their possible wear and tear to gain ground in Catalonia and the Basque Country at the expense of conservative formations like Junts and the PNV. However, the big problem for Feijóo remains the territorial issue, which was decisive in its day for the then Convergència to agree to vote for the PSOE leader as president in the 2018 no-confidence motion. The messages Feijóo has sent in this regard to Basque and Catalan nationalists and separatists since he has been leading the party make an understanding practically unviable hand in hand with Vox. That is why Sánchez counts on holding on until he finds a better scenario to call elections.
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