Russia wants Armenia to stop moving closer to the European Union. After several weeks of economic pressure, Russian President Vladimir Putin secured the support of his allies in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) this Friday, who joined his demand that the small former Soviet republic in the Caucasus choose whether it is with them or with Brussels.
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The presidents of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan urged Armenia to hold a referendum as soon as possible to make clear which alliance it prefers. The four countries plus Armenia form the EAEU, created in 2015 and led by Russia, by far the strongest economy in the group.
“We share the position on the need to hold a national referendum in the Republic of Armenia, as soon as possible, on joining the European Union or remaining in the Eurasian Economic Union,” the joint statement released after the leaders’ summit held in Astana (the Kazakh capital) says.
They commission a report to assess the risks of suspending Armenia from the EAEU
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was not present at the meeting, citing the ongoing electoral process in the country. Parliamentary elections will be held on June 7. Instead, Armenia was represented by Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan.
However, Russia and its allies do not want Armenia’s exit or continuation to depend solely on the will of the Yerevan government. Therefore, they have commissioned a report to assess the possible consequences of suspending Armenia from the EAEU treaty.
The statement explains that the intergovernmental council of the EAEU of the four signatory countries will present this report next December, when a meeting of the Supreme Economic Council of this organization is held.
Previously, the Kremlin acknowledged that forcing Armenia out of the EAEU is not easy. “Apparently, according to the cooperation statutes within the EAEU framework, it is impossible to exclude a member country,” explained Yuri Ushakov, the Kremlin’s international policy advisor, this week.
The easiest way would be for Armenia itself to declare its intention to suspend its participation. But for now, Yerevan is not willing to take that step. A week ago, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said that Armenia “perfectly” understands that the EAEU and the EU are incompatible. But he noted that his country will continue moving closer to the EU and only “when the time comes to make a decision about joining one group or the other, we will make it.”
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Peskov: “Armenia must move towards the EU at its own risk and responsibility”
The four signatory countries of the declaration assert that Armenia’s drift towards Brussels could endanger the economic security of the group.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later said that “as Armenia moves closer to the EU, it will find itself in a situation where integration with the EU will conflict with the norms and rules of the EAEU.”
“Armenia must not move towards the EU, which is its sovereign right, at the expense of the EAEU countries. It must do so at its own risk and responsibility,” he emphasized.
Relations between Russia and Armenia began to deteriorate when neighboring Azerbaijan regained the Nagorno-Karabakh region in September 2023, ending decades of territorial conflict. The Yerevan government expressed its displeasure at the lack of support from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the military alliance led by Moscow of which Armenia has been a member since its inception in 1994. As a result, Yerevan suspended its participation in this group in 2024.
Since then, Yerevan has tried to deepen its ties with the European Union and the United States. It has openly declared its desire to join the EU, and last year its Parliament passed a law to start the accession process. In a boost to this new policy, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited the Armenian capital this Tuesday, where he signed a strategic partnership agreement with Mirzoyan.
As the Astana summit and Armenian elections approached, the Russian side increased pressure on Yerevan. This week, Russia informed the Armenian government by letter that it will suspend the cooperation agreement under which it supplies natural gas and petroleum derivatives at a very low price if Yerevan continues the EU accession process.
The threat is added to other measures aimed at economically damaging the Caucasian country. Citing phytosanitary security reasons, in the last two weeks Moscow has suspended imports from Armenia of flowers, mineral water, and some alcoholic products, and the same measure will be applied to some fruits and vegetables.
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