Russia has once again bombed Kyiv fiercely this week, but that attack, far from being a victory, reveals growing frustration: things are not going well for the Kremlin on the battlefield.
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According to data from the Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington, Ukraine has already accumulated two consecutive months – May and April – recovering more territory than its enemy is able to conquer. These Ukrainian advances are minimal, but they highlight the stagnation of the Russian army at a time of year conducive to carrying out major offensives.
The DeepState platform, used by analysts to monitor the front, confirms this trend, and highlights that the territorial gains recorded by Kyiv in May occurred despite Moscow launching nearly 7,000 attacks, 37.5% more than the previous month.
Drones largely explain the good moment Ukraine is experiencing. In recent months, the country has intensified the production of medium and long-range unmanned vehicles. With them, it can strike deep into the Russian rear – just look at what happened yesterday in Saint Petersburg, a city located 1,100 kilometers from the Ukrainian border – and carry out continuous attacks against critical targets, such as energy infrastructure, refineries, arms factories, and logistics and command centers. This is significantly weakening Moscow’s war capabilities, already diminished by the effect of sanctions and recruitment problems.
A place that exemplifies the difficulties Russia is facing is Crimea, a region that the Kremlin annexed in 2014. For weeks, Ukraine has been launching its drones against the highway that connects the peninsula with the rest of the occupied territories, aiming to impose a logistical blockade. And the plan is working: many Russian trucks loaded with supplies end up burned, and local authorities have been forced to decree gasoline rationing. In Sevastopol, the main port of Crimea, the restrictions are causing long lines at gas stations.
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This moment of Russian weakness is being sought to be exploited by Volodymyr Zelensky to find a way out of the war. Last Sunday, in an interview with CBS, the Ukrainian president said that world leaders must exert “more pressure” on the Kremlin to resume negotiations. “Before winter, we must find a way to sit down and talk,” said the president, who stressed that Russia is heading “towards a major crisis.”
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Ukrainian military commanders agree with that diagnosis. General Andriy Biletsky recently told Reuters that the Russian army is exhausted, and Kyiv must maintain the current momentum to force Moscow to abandon its plans to take full control of Donbass. According to this officer, “the next six to nine months will be a turning point.”
Vladimir Putin, however, ignores any offer of dialogue. The Russian president seems to live in another reality. Last week, during a visit to Kazakhstan, he reiterated that Russia has every chance to win. “According to the analysis of battlefield data, our troops advance every day in all directions,” he assured.
Meanwhile, economic reports recommending that he end the war are piling up on his desk, as the state coffers cannot take any more.
According to Bloomberg, senior officials from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have warned Putin that war spending is unsustainable and urgent cuts to the defense budget are needed. An idea that the military sector strongly opposes, demanding extra injections of money to fund its endless “special operation” in Ukraine.
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