The Government has no illusions. The downfall of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, whether or not he is ultimately convicted, marks a turning point in hopes of renewing a left-wing government. As if that were not enough, they do not expect this to be the last judicial attack Pedro Sánchez will face, but rather another station on the via crucis. Although for now the president has no intention of shortening the legislature, the plan has fallen apart.
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Sánchez was building a narrative in which he positioned himself as a beacon of the left. On one hand, he stood in resistance to Trumpism represented, for example, by the refusal to submit to the 5% defense increase demanded by the U.S. or the clash with Israel. The summit of progressive leaders in Barcelona was part of that strategy. On the other hand, although electoral results in several autonomous communities have been poor for the PSOE, the pacts between the PP and Vox allowed the president to reinforce the same message domestically.
It becomes complicated for Sánchez to position himself as a useful vote, and to his left there is no refuge for the disenchanted either
For that scheme to work and for progressive voters to mobilize, moral references like the one represented by Zapatero were needed. Figures that reinforce the self-esteem of left-wing voters. That was his contribution to the 2023 campaign. The indictment of the former president collapses the framework. Even if his activities are legal, which remains to be determined, the Government admits that they are not politically aesthetic and that they will lead many voters to take a step back, that is, to abstain from the left.
The cases of Ábalos and Cerdán eroded trust in the PSOE and Sánchez because they involved two key officials of his full confidence, but the absence of evidence so far of irregular party financing allowed the damage to be limited. Even the cases opened against the president’s brother and, especially, his wife, did not sink Sánchez’s electoral prospects and even favored a certain rallying of the socialist membership and their parliamentary allies, some of whom have not hesitated to label the situation of Begoña Gómez as judicial persecution. But Zapatero’s case is different. What was once a political asset has become a burden. At Moncloa, they fear the coming months will be worse.
There are several other fronts that could fry this government’s electoral prospects. It remains to be seen what happens with the investigation into the PSOE’s financing. The party maintains that everything is in order and handed over boxes with expense receipts that filled three police vans six months ago, but the mystery remains until the secrecy of the case is lifted. It is also unknown how the inquiries into the bailout granted to Plus Ultra will evolve, which the Government defends was done with full guarantees but is under judicial scrutiny. Each case is different, but investigations become political ammunition regardless of their final outcome.
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Sánchez’s figure as a left reference allowed the useful vote to concentrate on the PSOE amid the crisis of its Sumar partners. But the judicial via crucis blocks that transfer. At the same time, the socialist wear cannot be capitalized on by their left due to the weakness of their government partners, the space composed of IU, Movimiento Sumar, Más Madrid, and Comunes. At this moment their brand is devalued and they lack leadership after Yolanda Díaz stepped back. Meanwhile, the future of what remains of Podemos remains unclear.
Therefore, to the left of the PSOE there are more ruins than strengths to capture the disenchanted socialist vote. And it is harder for Sánchez to ask for the useful vote from his left. So the plebiscite the president sought between a PP allied with the far right and the left looks more and more uneven every day.
The Plus Ultra investigation
The prosecutor distrusts the prosecutor, not the judge
The PSOE leadership trusts that Zapatero’s testimony before the judge, scheduled for June 2, will reduce suspicions about his activities and at least convince the socialist membership. Sánchez’s circle does not consider this a case of ‘lawfare’ by the National Court instructor José Luis Calama, who does not belong to any judicial associations, neither progressive nor conservative, nor participates in factions of either kind. However, the Government and the PSOE do distrust the anti-corruption prosecutor, Alejandro Luzón, who acts in this and other cases such as Ábalos/Koldo or the PSOE financing. But yesterday it became known that Plus Ultra officials spoke of influencing the first prosecutor who investigated them.
Moves ahead of the general elections
Two paths for Rufián
Gabriel Rufián made it clear this week that he sets conditions to be again the ERC candidate for the general elections. The deputy demands more power in deciding the electoral list. Right now, the relationship with his bench colleagues is not exactly comfortable. It remains to be seen to what extent the party is willing to negotiate the candidacy and if, in case of refusal, Rufián dares to take the leap and run under other labels than ERC. In that case, an alliance with Podemos would not be surprising, since Rufián lacks the structure and financing to undertake that adventure alone. What seems clear is that his proposal for left unity has not found resonance.
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